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        "value": 1.2321229347787677
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        "value": 1.4697545925825797
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        "date": "2026-10-02",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 23.546005929255465,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 23.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 14.716253705784665,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 14.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 10.301377594049265,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_rising_stack",
    "title": "Hurst rising stack",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": null,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.",
      "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.",
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 62.73360210550322,
      "fair_value_gap": 113.98287643603572,
      "market_activity": 97.845495,
      "market_dynamics": 1.607241,
      "relative_strength": 77.362226,
      "roc30": 65.84725000899344,
      "hurst_alignment": 100,
      "hurst_risk": 0
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst rising stack. Price is 62.7% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 25.50911039657021
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 78.97380303436253
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 80.35203917166204
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 68.94146127871807
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 26.450001,
      "low_52": 10.15,
      "position_52": 81.41103795024307,
      "drawdown": -11.455579907161434
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 75.31336026650973,
      "average_weekly_range": 11.867616519057652,
      "active_drawdown": -7.467400532098004
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.16,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -38.10269907567104,
        "weeks": 26,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.16,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -38.10269907567104,
        "weeks": 26,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 14.391619,
      "fair_value": 10.944801,
      "trend_gap": 62.73360210550322,
      "fair_value_gap": 113.98287643603572
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.16,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -38.10269907567104,
        "weeks": 26,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 23.42,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 130.51181102362207,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 130.51181102362207,
      "weeks": 10,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "62.7% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+77.4",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+97.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+65.8",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 7,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 20
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    "volume_ratio": 216.1113022805674,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 93,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 92,
          "positive_rate": 44.6,
          "median_return": -1.24,
          "bar_width": 6.2,
          "average_return": 3.6,
          "best_return": 72.48,
          "worst_return": -22.93
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        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 56.7,
          "median_return": 4.6,
          "bar_width": 23.0,
          "average_return": 11.03,
          "best_return": 120.66,
          "worst_return": -33.82
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 56.7,
          "median_return": 4.35,
          "bar_width": 21.75,
          "average_return": 16.94,
          "best_return": 143.98,
          "worst_return": -42.43
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 12,
      "constructive_percent": 50,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 672,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.02,
          "average_return": 2.61,
          "median_excess_return": 0.49,
          "excess_observations": 672,
          "p10": -11.96,
          "p90": 19.27
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        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 260,
          "positive_rate": 52.7,
          "median_return": 2.13,
          "average_return": 7.46,
          "median_excess_return": 3.33,
          "excess_observations": 260,
          "p10": -18.55,
          "p90": 40.63
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 146,
          "positive_rate": 55.5,
          "median_return": 2.85,
          "average_return": 19.3,
          "median_excess_return": 7.57,
          "excess_observations": 146,
          "p10": -21.0,
          "p90": 74.78
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      ],
      "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 26,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 20,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 62.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 26,
          "explanation": "Price is 81% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 62.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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