{ "ticker": { "symbol": "6949", "name": "Pell Bio-Med Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 943.0, "latest_open": 800.0, "latest_high": 999.0, "latest_low": 799.0, "bar_count": 125, "analysis_bar_count": 125, "reversal_percent": 12.403322085615738, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 46, "date": "2025-01-24", "price": 79.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.046756982927885, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 50, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 157.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 99.36708860759494, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": 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0.8858281681872433 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1030.00; Wave 2 943.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1030.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 645.00; Wave B 796.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 385.00; C length 147.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.38\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 645.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.214285714285715, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 943.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1030.00; Wave 2 943.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1030.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.84531533698518, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1030.00; Wave 2 943.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1030.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.403322085615738, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1030.00; Wave 2 943.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1030.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.682325459931016, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1030.00; Wave 2 943.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1030.0, "confirmation": 796.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 74, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 34.19985300832517, "fair_value_gap": 209.55718075081535, "market_activity": 34.390903, "market_dynamics": 0.701226, "relative_strength": 29.256702, "roc30": 205.67260940032415, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 34.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.945945945945946 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 36.666666666666664 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 57.166666666666664 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 344.811320754717 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1120.0, "low_52": 233.0, "position_52": 80.04509582863585, "drawdown": -15.803571428571429 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 77.83554093889839, "average_weekly_range": 16.913426417836106, "active_drawdown": -8.446601941747574 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1030.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 59.689922480620154, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 702.683333, "fair_value": 304.628695, "trend_gap": 34.19985300832517, "fair_value_gap": 209.55718075081535 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 796.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.718446601941746, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 943.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.467336683417084, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "34.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+29.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+34.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+205.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 16 }, "volume_ratio": 94.12749021469014, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 60, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 59, "positive_rate": 61.0, "median_return": 5.85, "bar_width": 29.25, "average_return": 17.42, "best_return": 131.36, "worst_return": -20.36 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 50, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 54.29, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 67.79, "best_return": 230.45, "worst_return": -23.54 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 109.09, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 117.08, "best_return": 208.85, "worst_return": 27.27 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 796.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1030.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 5, "constructive_percent": 23, "rising_cycle_count": 10, "rising_cycle_percent": 45, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 538, "positive_rate": 48.3, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 1.98, "median_excess_return": -1.55, "excess_observations": 538, "p10": -11.42, "p90": 14.34 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 212, "positive_rate": 50.5, "median_return": 0.24, "average_return": 5.29, "median_excess_return": -4.28, "excess_observations": 212, "p10": -17.43, "p90": 29.67 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 125, "positive_rate": 52.0, "median_return": 2.04, "average_return": 8.86, "median_excess_return": -7.55, "excess_observations": 125, "p10": -26.24, "p90": 40.44 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 9.225874867444327, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 63, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 20, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 34.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 3, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 20, "explanation": "Price is 80% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 34.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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