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        "label": "10w",
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        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "value": 1.2114089793683014
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "value": 1.2036823406682686
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": 1.2360837146189227
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        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "value": 1.2789842090677348
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        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": 1.3323905841049137
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        "value": 1.2941783313603707
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        "date": "2026-10-02",
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        "date": "2026-10-09",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.489047977619,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.305654986011875,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.7139584902083125,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Cycle rollover risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 43,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": null,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 14.28409369530984,
      "fair_value_gap": 22.275419316055658,
      "market_activity": 42.370638,
      "market_dynamics": 0.834304,
      "relative_strength": 18.212252,
      "roc30": 28.315412186379927,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as cycle rollover risk. Price is 14.3% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 0.5617977528089888
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 26.95035460992908
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 4.069767441860465
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 180.0,
      "low_52": 124.904861,
      "position_52": 98.18495784174353,
      "drawdown": -0.5555555555555556
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 35.014951103267705,
      "average_weekly_range": 0.3227280794246808,
      "active_drawdown": -0.5555555555555556
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    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "price": 126.811806,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.244147169811317,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 211,
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "price": 180.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 38.62447767259484,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
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      "decisive": {
        "index": 211,
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "price": 180.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 38.62447767259484,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
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      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 156.627221,
      "fair_value": 146.390829,
      "trend_gap": 14.28409369530984,
      "fair_value_gap": 22.275419316055658
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "price": 126.811806,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.244147169811317,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
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      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 179.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 41.15404996282443,
        "weeks": 23,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": 41.15404996282443,
      "weeks": 23,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "14.3% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+18.2",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+42.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.8",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+28.3",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 5,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 32
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    "volume_ratio": 525.6288791353275,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 106,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 105,
          "positive_rate": 50.5,
          "median_return": 0.28,
          "bar_width": 1.4000000000000001,
          "average_return": 0.39,
          "best_return": 16.07,
          "worst_return": -10.93
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 97,
          "positive_rate": 47.4,
          "median_return": -0.35,
          "bar_width": 1.75,
          "average_return": 0.56,
          "best_return": 17.73,
          "worst_return": -20.41
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 97,
          "positive_rate": 50.5,
          "median_return": 0.83,
          "bar_width": 4.1499999999999995,
          "average_return": 0.9,
          "best_return": 28.26,
          "worst_return": -22.75
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 571,
          "positive_rate": 48.2,
          "median_return": -0.11,
          "average_return": -0.41,
          "median_excess_return": 0.03,
          "excess_observations": 571,
          "p10": -11.47,
          "p90": 9.87
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        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 213,
          "positive_rate": 47.4,
          "median_return": -1.06,
          "average_return": -0.66,
          "median_excess_return": -1.15,
          "excess_observations": 213,
          "p10": -20.75,
          "p90": 16.41
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 126,
          "positive_rate": 53.2,
          "median_return": 1.62,
          "average_return": 0.9,
          "median_excess_return": -1.17,
          "excess_observations": 126,
          "p10": -23.46,
          "p90": 23.6
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^FCHI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 50,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 13,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "Price is 14.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 14,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 93,
          "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
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        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
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      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
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