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"date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.8960804163138083 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 2.130365685153841 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 2.269546510922599 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 2.3566018390381105 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 2.409187941507084 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 2.385700594395002 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 2.3553898991167745 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 2.0360632143200723 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.5731489661993954 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.158832742266678 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.7414930889088828 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.4500281415585756 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.25258258860881433 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.22032635784393323 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.18270270002770242 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.12576686053430824 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.00632430450969243 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.21004536348698272 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.2942222981399746 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.40399005349311906 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.5497524219550375 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.7038407763752237 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.8044347581105266 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.9594726343269872 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.008549674777544 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8363052468658221 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6715944206550731 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.5458427227660132 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.5525576478705232 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.5786709868324552 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.00; Wave 2 72.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.0, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 89.20; Wave B 79.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 23.20; C length 7.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.32\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 89.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.19177671232876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 72.300003, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.00; Wave 2 72.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.0, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 13.573539069088467, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.00; Wave 2 72.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.0, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.483461918180291, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.00; Wave 2 72.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.0, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.938423342726203, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.00; Wave 2 72.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.0, "confirmation": 79.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 45, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -19.883274922924226, "fair_value_gap": -5.696588424881472, "market_activity": -32.416943, "market_dynamics": -0.083237, "relative_strength": -35.539869, "roc30": -18.764041573033705, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 19.9% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -9.284810889014203 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -7.426370228588221 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -52.74509607843137 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 10.045671691583195 } ], "range": { "high_52": 175.0, "low_52": 61.599998, "position_52": 9.435630345050615, "drawdown": -58.685712571428574 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 66.3705005951044, "average_weekly_range": 10.691376107945963, "active_drawdown": -52.74509607843137 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 66.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.008966121377778, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 90.243333, "fair_value": 76.667431, "trend_gap": -19.883274922924226, "fair_value_gap": -5.696588424881472 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 79.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.757571212121206, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 72.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -9.284810889014203, "weeks": 4, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "19.9% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-35.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-32.4", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 109, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 29.416998077484564, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 3, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 12.37, "bar_width": 61.849999999999994, "average_return": 12.37, "best_return": 19.7, "worst_return": 5.04 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 79.70, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 66.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 5, "constructive_percent": 23, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 528, "positive_rate": 47.7, "median_return": -0.23, "average_return": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -2.13, "excess_observations": 528, "p10": -9.05, "p90": 10.52 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 198, "positive_rate": 46.0, "median_return": -1.13, "average_return": 1.53, "median_excess_return": -7.97, "excess_observations": 198, "p10": -15.02, "p90": 18.76 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 117, "positive_rate": 48.7, "median_return": -0.36, "average_return": 5.18, "median_excess_return": -10.41, "excess_observations": 117, "p10": -24.73, "p90": 34.78 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.71369673387151, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 19.9% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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