{ "ticker": { "symbol": "AMES", "name": "Amundi IBEX 35 UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 506.0, "latest_open": 495.850006, "latest_high": 508.200012, "latest_low": 495.549988, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 5.268946024690002, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 326.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 302.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.396629096477793, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": 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0.9075414189284332 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.9799384235774002 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0714333020102889 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.067200476616032 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0165393478002775 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.0039466832018173 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 68, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 302.35; Wave B 422.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 163.60; C length 83.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.51\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 302.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.396629096477793, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 465.950012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.10947668378747, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 506.0, "confirmation": 422.700012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 30 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 302.35; Wave 2 422.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 465.95; Wave 3 506.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.51\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 302.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.396629096477793, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 465.950012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.10947668378747, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 422.700012, "confirmation": 506.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 422.70; Wave 2 451.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 471.35; Wave 3 506.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.12\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 471.350006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.50934294272033, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 451.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.243131376983583, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.108118593887863, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 451.350006, "confirmation": 506.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.430313639504003, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.268946024690002, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 68, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 302.35; Wave B 422.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 163.60; C length 83.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.51\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 302.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.396629096477793, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 465.950012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.10947668378747, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 506.0, "confirmation": 422.700012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 30 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.688262217283001, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 422.70; Wave 2 451.35.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 471.35; Wave 3 506.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.12\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 471.350006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.50934294272033, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 451.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.243131376983583, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.108118593887863, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 451.350006, "confirmation": 506.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 39, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 302.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.396629096477793, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 465.950012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.10947668378747, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.32976008530522, "fair_value_gap": 41.550938610286686, "market_activity": 67.427066, "market_dynamics": 1.305058, "relative_strength": 12.628216, "roc30": 16.308473498912043, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 9.3% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.1797628332761891 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 12.108118593887863 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.592992786809035 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 41.935483870967744 } ], "range": { "high_52": 512.299988, "low_52": 353.350006, "position_52": 96.03649656279924, "drawdown": -1.2297458808451085 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 17.507990411240417, "average_weekly_range": 2.3646380474519186, "active_drawdown": -1.0365711176195032 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 462.820004, "fair_value": 357.468488, "trend_gap": 9.32976008530522, "fair_value_gap": 41.550938610286686 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 422.700012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.282111575522396, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 506.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 19.706644342371103, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+67.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 7, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 141.26451265378364, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 83.7, "median_return": 2.61, "bar_width": 13.049999999999999, "average_return": 2.05, "best_return": 8.72, "worst_return": -8.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 38, "positive_rate": 92.1, "median_return": 9.48, "bar_width": 47.400000000000006, "average_return": 7.77, "best_return": 15.56, "worst_return": -2.72 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 14.95, "bar_width": 74.75, "average_return": 16.86, "best_return": 28.1, "worst_return": 9.31 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 422.70, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 506.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 27, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 26, "explanation": "Price is 9.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 84, "explanation": "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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