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0.897895961641455 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.6539403110115778 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.5871658242701325 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.5582736050609243 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6258238496955201 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7511500547800745 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.86; Wave 2 106.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.860001, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 50.80; Wave B 97.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 59.06; C length 9.48.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.16\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 50.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.939177567037277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 106.739998, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.86; Wave 2 106.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.860001, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.615955984578042, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.86; Wave 2 106.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.860001, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.6349724903612755, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.86; Wave 2 106.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.860001, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.644480743252893, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.86; Wave 2 106.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.600394859948966, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.860001, "confirmation": 97.260002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.920649910015564, "fair_value_gap": 48.493815818139154, "market_activity": 10.456915, "market_dynamics": -0.480476, "relative_strength": 16.20426, "roc30": 34.55186601407121, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 7.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 9.747065396934703 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -0.7069786046511628 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 25.59124663116241 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 52.922626665216605 } ], "range": { "high_52": 110.260002, "low_52": 68.93, "position_52": 91.48317486169006, "drawdown": -3.1924577690466576 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 20.189406865762443, "average_weekly_range": 2.9861217415702503, "active_drawdown": -2.839980858911513 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 109.860001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 116.2598487452726, "weeks": 55, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 98.906, "fair_value": 71.88178, "trend_gap": 7.920649910015564, "fair_value_gap": 48.493815818139154 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 97.260002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.469141530410143, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 106.739998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.747065396934703, "weeks": 4, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+34.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 118, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 57.88651714770276, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 24, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 65.2, "median_return": 2.99, "bar_width": 14.950000000000001, "average_return": 1.89, "best_return": 9.86, "worst_return": -6.3 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 13.39, "bar_width": 66.95, "average_return": 17.82, "best_return": 32.36, "worst_return": 5.69 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 38.28, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 35.26, "best_return": 44.68, "worst_return": 22.6 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 97.26, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 109.86; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 122, "positive_rate": 74.6, "median_return": 1.49, "average_return": 1.27, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 122, "p10": -4.39, "p90": 6.07 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 68, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 2.06, "average_return": 2.93, "median_excess_return": 1.68, "excess_observations": 68, "p10": -6.7, "p90": 12.66 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 46, "positive_rate": 80.4, "median_return": 7.5, "average_return": 8.7, "median_excess_return": -0.36, "excess_observations": 46, "p10": -3.79, "p90": 19.36 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.9229933094059053, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 40, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 3, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 15, "explanation": "Price is 7.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 10, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 66, "explanation": "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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