{ "ticker": { "symbol": "NVDX", "name": "T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 16.66, "latest_open": 18.04, "latest_high": 18.15, "latest_low": 14.97, "bar_count": 146, "analysis_bar_count": 146, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 77, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.43791, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.333345284122835, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 78, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 6.169204, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.057291631654593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true 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"2025-11-14", "value": 0.9317600214543531 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.7751382242670818 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.6331720018227691 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.5897074342174722 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.48400068326953305 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.4551743794353235 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.5354609676088267 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.5662341780811493 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.526420417855288 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.5065909044032382 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.5132969240120335 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.5577253688973793 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.5073117117394339 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.42743543459509803 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.45895741114705313 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.3050910589415197 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.16537304638928443 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.10492827816470562 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.03865097441065615 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.22866617761879407 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.2003106439294705 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.020557976054696392 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.38556594055386584 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.7027145089912958 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.6792088466498587 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.8880120843800969 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1735278475029183 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.145042565110971 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.004654224123178 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.7989395527341189 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.6389487058572751 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.5910952743930518 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.2686694807313469 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.06859468523426004 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.1834029429397439 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.12939375912562723 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.1320377580817847 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.03155141132075101 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.64; Wave 2 16.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.64, "confirmation": 18.77, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.39; Wave B 18.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.75; C length 2.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.31\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 134, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 22.39, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 73.70054305663305, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 16.66, "confirmation": 18.77, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.64; Wave 2 16.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.64, "confirmation": 18.77, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.39; Wave 2 16.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 15% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 134, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 22.39, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 73.70054305663305, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.52173913043478, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 22.39, "confirmation": 15.64, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.64; Wave 2 16.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.64, "confirmation": 18.77, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.64; Wave 2 16.66.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 15.64, "confirmation": 18.77, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 49, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -3.06627101879328, "fair_value_gap": 31.81536259787351, "market_activity": 0.825834, "market_dynamics": -0.692083, "relative_strength": -11.183657, "roc30": -4.962920707358819, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 3.1% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.930131004366806 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -5.233219567690547 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -5.822498586772194 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -0.07404477294585632 } ], "range": { "high_52": 24.72, "low_52": 12.41, "position_52": 34.52477660438668, "drawdown": -32.605177993527505 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 67.92394428360737, "average_weekly_range": 16.56341520928345, "active_drawdown": -25.59178204555605 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 140, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 15.64, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.147387226440376, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 17.187, "fair_value": 12.638891, "trend_gap": -3.06627101879328, "fair_value_gap": 31.81536259787351 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 142, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.77, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.01278772378516, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 145, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 16.66, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -11.241342567927541, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "3.1% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 56, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 146, "confirmed_pivots": 21 }, "volume_ratio": 68.31219119499752, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": -0.81, "bar_width": 4.050000000000001, "average_return": 0.05, "best_return": 14.32, "worst_return": -12.49 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 8.96, "bar_width": 44.800000000000004, "average_return": 6.24, "best_return": 32.38, "worst_return": -22.62 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 34.46, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 34.46, "best_return": 67.14, "worst_return": 1.77 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 18.77, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 15.64; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 35, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 219, "positive_rate": 53.4, "median_return": 0.26, "average_return": 1.19, "median_excess_return": -0.69, "excess_observations": 219, "p10": -6.72, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 55.6, "median_return": 0.98, "average_return": 1.85, "median_excess_return": -1.26, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 20.09 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 53, "positive_rate": 50.9, "median_return": 0.32, "average_return": 4.22, "median_excess_return": -6.15, "excess_observations": 53, "p10": -11.23, "p90": 18.43 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "volatility", "options_conviction": 50.4, "expected_move": 12.94742729, "invalidation_distance": 6.122448979591834, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 21, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 35% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", 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