{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EFQA", "name": "Deka STO.Fut.Water ESG UC.ETF I", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 108.839996, "latest_open": 105.419998, "latest_high": 109.099998, "latest_low": 105.419998, "bar_count": 33, "analysis_bar_count": 33, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 9, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 108.480003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 20, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 97.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.937320890376451, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 32, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 108.839996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.402251117776393, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "cresting", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": 4.366767267539899, "slope": -0.32715535925157013, "dominant_period_weeks": 40, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 12, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 8, "series": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.6871159059454149 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.888880095186377 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -2.897423118846312 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -3.6421780867772298 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -3.39735555147064 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -2.4650838039498 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.1185366595259756 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0266574936367292 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 3.1937649432656423 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 4.693922626791469 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 5.665514094286416 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 5.218241519869178 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 4.1284331851305085 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 4.366767267539899 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "cresting", "alignment_score": 25, "risk_score": 75, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 19, "nearest_crest_window": 16, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 8, "period_range": [ 6, 10 ], "period_strength": 39, "phase": "cresting", "value": 0.5837583637344742, "slope": -1.2255961012345824, "amplitude": 1.875, "weeks_since_trough": 1, "weeks_since_crest": 5, "projected_trough_window": 7, "projected_crest_window": 3, "trough_window": { "start": 5, "midpoint": 7, "end": 9 }, "crest_window": { "start": 1, "midpoint": 3, "end": 5 }, "fld": { "value": 107.259998, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 0, "displacement": 4, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 105.668999, "state": "price above", "slope": 0.889, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 13, 21, 31 ], "series": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.9297134193993419 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.9070677013141896 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.09923590184558317 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.5339053705280395 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.3803860804452879 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.6368683917793465 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.318742036310824 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.7455683757982335 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.375551061995986 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.029846957858340017 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.15760895619141763 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.0148366887489991 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.5958079502957202 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.8652693167652401 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.7560990540791527 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.3716794383730099 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.05537121381539184 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8436238402183072 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.139150124029089 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.7130500413430294 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.372497199433204 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.8093544649690567 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.1374371055712347 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.3725361649038492 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.5837583637344742 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 16, 24 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "cresting", "value": 1.2270503299462772, "slope": -0.24887195902218662, "amplitude": 3.631, "weeks_since_trough": 1, "weeks_since_crest": 4, "projected_trough_window": 19, "projected_crest_window": 16, "trough_window": { "start": 15, "midpoint": 19, "end": 23 }, "crest_window": { "start": 12, "midpoint": 16, "end": 20 }, "fld": { "value": 99.4699975, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 9, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 105.43272636363636, "state": "price above", "slope": 0.6527273636363641, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 20, 31 ], "series": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.1051446794657072 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.0576729116058181 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.988268124162475 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.8340634319809528 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.6747076047291065 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.28431573077222205 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5632886293065728 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.349340730071111 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.4955521395362992 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4759222889684638 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.310018426910816 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.1033394756369386 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.2270503299462772 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 100.1349985, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 2, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.9297134193993418 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.9070677013141897 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.09923590184558319 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.5339053705280395 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.3803860804452879 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.6368683917793465 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.318742036310824 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.7455683757982335 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.375551061995986 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.02984695785834002 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.15760895619141763 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.5940653245004003 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.9014099877977123 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.9807114736695869 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.895400496129146 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.6491098345377756 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.3826760773113071 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.16686009762398965 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.1936332271955792 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.8948244545798782 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.8463301634950608 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.609295159368701 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.2409858983749833 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8110181513437028 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9697335434615559 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.08; Wave 2 108.84.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 27, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 109.080002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.64790721539121, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 104.839996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8870608014840284, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 32, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 108.839996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.8153378029506984, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.080002, "confirmation": 104.839996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 97.70; Wave B 104.84.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.38; C length 4.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.35\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 20, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 97.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.515249218139169, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 27, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 109.080002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.64790721539121, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 104.839996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8870608014840284, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 32, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 108.839996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.8153378029506984, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 108.839996, "confirmation": 104.839996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 109.08; Wave 2 108.84.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 27, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 109.080002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.64790721539121, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 104.839996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8870608014840284, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 32, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 108.839996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.8153378029506984, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 109.080002, "confirmation": 104.839996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 5.3% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.6816096629147037 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 8.905337024107716 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.9482895850826223 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 109.18, "low_52": 95.889999, "position_52": 97.44165557248635, "drawdown": -0.31141601025829596 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.960672708532725, "average_weekly_range": 1.992269629025301, "active_drawdown": -0.22002749871602859 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 97.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.937320890376451, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 97.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.937320890376451, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 103.401334, "fair_value": 103.205422, "trend_gap": 5.259759994972592, "fair_value_gap": 5.459571688006857 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 97.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.937320890376451, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 32, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 108.839996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.402251117776393, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 11.402251117776393, "weeks": 12, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+51.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 6, "agreement": 67, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 29, "history_score": 13, "indicator_coverage": 40, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 33, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 129.45927754094683, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 104.84, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 109.08; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.22051268726617185, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 49, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 90, "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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