{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "JEQC",
    "name": "JPM Nasdaq Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF CHF Hedged Inc",
    "exchange": "EBS"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 20.540001,
  "latest_open": 19.941999,
  "latest_high": 20.58,
  "latest_low": 19.875999,
  "bar_count": 40,
  "analysis_bar_count": 40,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2025-11-07",
      "price": 18.892569,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 39,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 20.540001,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 8.719999911076139,
      "weeks": 39,
      "confirmed": false
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    "trend_bias": "bullish",
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    "slope": -3.3353115589493383,
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    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 39,
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        "date": "2025-11-28",
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        "date": "2025-12-05",
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        "date": "2025-12-12",
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": -0.48185714628647275
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 2.3557286549881695
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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    "status": "mixed",
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    "risk_score": 50,
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    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "nearest_crest_window": 10,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
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          15
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        "slope": 0.16369442362581893,
        "amplitude": 1.986,
        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
        "weeks_since_crest": 10,
        "projected_trough_window": 11,
        "projected_crest_window": 2,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 8,
          "midpoint": 11,
          "end": 14
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 0,
          "midpoint": 2,
          "end": 5
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 6,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 19.08587214285714,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -0.10812785714285715,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          20,
          31,
          38
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            "date": "2026-05-01",
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          24
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        "amplitude": 3.472,
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        "projected_trough_window": 19,
        "projected_crest_window": 10,
        "trough_window": {
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        "crest_window": {
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        "fld": {
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          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          38
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      {
        "period": 40,
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        "estimated_period": 40,
        "period_range": [
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "neutral",
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        "amplitude": 4.739,
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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      {
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "composite": [
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
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        "date": "2025-11-28",
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        "date": "2025-12-05",
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        "date": "2025-12-12",
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        "date": "2025-12-19",
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        "date": "2025-12-26",
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        "date": "2026-01-02",
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        "date": "2026-01-09",
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        "date": "2026-01-16",
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "value": 1.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": 0.9867442741485973
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": 0.4205105127709618
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        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": -0.16756092536774936
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": -0.6433792676528836
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": -0.6564870453840387
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": -1.436696571618186
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": -2.0653611460186694
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": -1.4613664367095176
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": -1.6965316614025134
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": -1.5201347622546861
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": -0.77431060472059
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.1982431733468782
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.9904983674490144
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 1.2613121189804801
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 1.6182871524171494
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 1.7895317033836948
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 1.9384772625750764
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 1.9439791363307934
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.6273741190790858
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 1.2013255337567392
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 1.251167517779556
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 1.0038481478320929
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.8852941401304576
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.80215192221325
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.2180384467604925
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -0.15027752838850758
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -0.24759134587978798
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.5268626433607273
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 18.29; Wave 2 18.33.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 19.66; Wave 3 20.68.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 19.66; Wave 4 19.71.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 1.38, 2.35, 0.83.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 20.68; Wave 5 20.54.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.71\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 2,
          "date": "2025-11-21",
          "price": 18.288658,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -3.7350438206127405,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 12,
          "date": "2026-01-30",
          "price": 19.664742,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.5242480886241,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 20,
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "price": 18.330276,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.7860844551126025,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 32,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 20.683764,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 12.839348409156516,
          "weeks": 12,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 36,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 19.714001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -4.688522843327744,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 39,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 20.540001,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 4.189915583346072,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 19.714001,
      "confirmation": 20.540001,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 90
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 20.68; Wave 2 20.54.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 32,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 20.683764,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 12.839348409156516,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 36,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 19.714001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -4.688522843327744,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 39,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 20.540001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 4.189915583346072,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 20.683764,
        "confirmation": 19.714001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 6
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 18.33; Wave B 19.71.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 2.35; C length 0.83.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.35\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 20,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 18.330276,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.7860844551126025,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 32,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 20.683764,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 12.839348409156516,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 36,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 19.714001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -4.688522843327744,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 39,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 20.540001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 4.189915583346072,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 20.540001,
        "confirmation": 19.714001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 18.29; Wave 2 18.33.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 19.66; Wave 3 20.68.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 19.66; Wave 4 19.71.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 1.38, 2.35, 0.83.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 20.68; Wave 5 20.54.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.71\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 2,
              "date": "2025-11-21",
              "price": 18.288658,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -3.7350438206127405,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 12,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
              "price": 19.664742,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.5242480886241,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 20,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 18.330276,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.7860844551126025,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 32,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 20.683764,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.839348409156516,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 36,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 19.714001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -4.688522843327744,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 39,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 20.540001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 4.189915583346072,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 19.714001,
          "confirmation": 20.540001,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 90
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 4.0% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 0.34197363663769004
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 1.4461709060693546
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 6.904277633414221
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 20.718426,
      "low_52": 18.028185,
      "position_52": 93.36769456714097,
      "drawdown": -0.861189937884281
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 13.281034859359814,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.9887906823745125,
      "active_drawdown": -0.6950524092230015
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "price": 18.892569,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "price": 18.892569,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 19.758329,
      "fair_value": 19.610608,
      "trend_gap": 3.9561645116851754,
      "fair_value_gap": 4.739236029805914
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "price": 18.892569,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 39,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 20.540001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.719999911076139,
        "weeks": 39,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 8.719999911076139,
      "weeks": 39,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "4.0% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+9.3",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.0",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+4.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 3,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 50,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 25,
      "history_score": 15,
      "indicator_coverage": 37,
      "structure_score": 17,
      "weekly_observations": 40,
      "confirmed_pivots": 1
    },
    "volume_ratio": 61.513683010262255,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 19.71; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 33,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 696,
          "positive_rate": 62.4,
          "median_return": 0.89,
          "average_return": 0.74,
          "median_excess_return": 0.03,
          "excess_observations": 696,
          "p10": -6.54,
          "p90": 6.54
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        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 244,
          "positive_rate": 71.3,
          "median_return": 3.44,
          "average_return": 3.37,
          "median_excess_return": 1.44,
          "excess_observations": 244,
          "p10": -11.5,
          "p90": 17.53
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 133,
          "positive_rate": 76.7,
          "median_return": 5.49,
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          "median_excess_return": 3.54,
          "excess_observations": 133,
          "p10": -16.93,
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^SSMI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
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      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
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      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
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          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
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          "bar_width": 0,
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        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
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          "explanation": "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
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        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
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        {
          "key": "stability",
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          "bar_width": 100,
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        },
        {
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        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
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