{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "IAUI",
    "name": "NEOS GOLD HIGH INCOME ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
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  "bar_count": 62,
  "analysis_bar_count": 62,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
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    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-04-17",
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      "date": "2026-07-17",
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      "confirmed": true
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    {
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      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 51.23,
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    "risk_score": 38,
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    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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      "confirmation": 48.364818,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 47
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 57.41; Wave 2 51.23.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 45,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 57.413963,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 58,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 48.364818,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 61,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 51.23,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 57.413963,
        "confirmation": 48.364818,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 5
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 90,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 58.95; Wave 2 57.41.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 52.96; Wave 3 48.36.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 52.96; Wave 4 51.23.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.51\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 40,
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "price": 58.954145,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": null,
            "weeks": 0,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 41,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 52.959431,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.168435145654296,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 45,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 57.413963,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 58,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 48.364818,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 61,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 51.23,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 57.413963,
        "confirmation": 48.364818,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 47
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-abc",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "correction",
          "stage": "wave_c",
          "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 76,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 58.95; Wave B 57.41.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "A length 5.99; C length 6.18.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave C is 1.03\u00d7 Wave A.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 40,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 58.954145,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "5"
            },
            {
              "index": 41,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 52.959431,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.168435145654296,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "A"
            },
            {
              "index": 45,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 57.413963,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "B"
            },
            {
              "index": 61,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 51.23,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.770834613872596,
              "weeks": 16,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "C"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 51.23,
          "confirmation": 57.413963,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 58.95; Wave 2 57.41.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 52.96; Wave 3 48.36.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 52.96; Wave 4 51.23.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.51\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 40,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 58.954145,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 41,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 52.959431,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.168435145654296,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 45,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 57.413963,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 58,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 48.364818,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 61,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 51.23,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 57.413963,
          "confirmation": 48.364818,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 47
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 58.95; Wave 2 57.41.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 52.96; Wave 3 48.36.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 52.96; Wave 4 51.23.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.51\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 40,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 58.954145,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 41,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 52.959431,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.168435145654296,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 45,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 57.413963,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 58,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 48.364818,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 61,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 51.23,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 57.413963,
          "confirmation": 48.364818,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 47
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 5.6% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.4695725181767445
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -8.69481962601912
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -11.700266269458634
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 15.42561375705685
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 62.01807,
      "low_52": 43.713656,
      "position_52": 41.06301354416479,
      "drawdown": -17.395043089860753
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 21.68731158398966,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.015273089123825,
      "active_drawdown": -16.450468868128596
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 58,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 48.364818,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 45,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 57.413963,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.411215747389733,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 58,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 48.364818,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 54.289755,
      "fair_value": 50.844603,
      "trend_gap": -5.635971280400883,
      "fair_value_gap": 0.7579899876492251
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 58,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 48.364818,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -15.761226933594537,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 61,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 51.23,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 5.924103756577762,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "5.6% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-12.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-32.1",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-2.0",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-6.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 50,
      "history_score": 24,
      "indicator_coverage": 63,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 62,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
    },
    "volume_ratio": 122.20591493625174,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 48.36, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 57.41; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 16,
      "constructive_count": 3,
      "constructive_percent": 19,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 19,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 209,
          "positive_rate": 53.1,
          "median_return": 0.2,
          "average_return": 1.12,
          "median_excess_return": -0.72,
          "excess_observations": 209,
          "p10": -6.59,
          "p90": 9.02
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 85,
          "positive_rate": 54.1,
          "median_return": 0.64,
          "average_return": 1.62,
          "median_excess_return": -1.46,
          "excess_observations": 85,
          "p10": -11.01,
          "p90": 19.92
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 49,
          "positive_rate": 51.0,
          "median_return": 0.32,
          "average_return": 3.93,
          "median_excess_return": -7.82,
          "excess_observations": 49,
          "p10": -11.31,
          "p90": 17.87
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 30.6,
      "expected_move": 4.11353353,
      "invalidation_distance": 12.070979894593023,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 31/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 16,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 41% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 38,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 38/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2025-06-06",
      "2025-06-13",
      "2025-06-20",
      "2025-06-27",
      "2025-07-04",
      "2025-07-11",
      "2025-07-18",
      "2025-07-25",
      "2025-08-01",
      "2025-08-08",
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