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        "label": "10w",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "date": "2026-09-11",
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        "date": "2026-09-18",
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        "date": "2026-09-25",
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  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 3.18; Wave 2 2.66.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
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        {
          "index": 216,
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          "weeks": 9,
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        {
          "index": 226,
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          "confirmed": true,
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        },
        {
          "index": 229,
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          "price": 2.66,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 9.01639344262296,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
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      ],
      "invalidation": 3.18,
      "confirmation": 2.44,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 28
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 1.92; Wave B 2.44.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 1.26; C length 0.22.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.17\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 207,
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          },
          {
            "index": 216,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 3.18,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
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          },
          {
            "index": 226,
            "date": "2026-09-04",
            "price": 2.44,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.270440251572335,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 229,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 2.66,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 2.66,
        "confirmation": 2.44,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 28
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 1.92; Wave 2 2.66.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 207,
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            "kind": "low",
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            "weeks": 31,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 216,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 3.18,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 229,
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            "price": 2.66,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.352201257861633,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 1.92,
        "confirmation": 3.18,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 43
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.505014730427588,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1.92; Wave 2 2.66.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 207,
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              "weeks": 31,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 216,
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              "kind": "high",
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              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
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            {
              "index": 229,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
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              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.352201257861633,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
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          ],
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          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 43
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.440634206517242,
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          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3.18; Wave 2 2.66.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
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          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 216,
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            {
              "index": 226,
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          ],
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          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 28
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.908443944562069,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3.18; Wave 2 2.66.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 216,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 3.18,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 65.62500000000001,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 226,
              "date": "2026-09-04",
              "price": 2.44,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.270440251572335,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 229,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 2.66,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.01639344262296,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3.18,
          "confirmation": 2.44,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 57,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 216,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 3.18,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 65.62500000000001,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 226,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 2.44,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.270440251572335,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 229,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 2.66,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.01639344262296,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Dynamics is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 4.84634492240188,
      "fair_value_gap": 6.1183618676033795,
      "market_activity": 9.46682,
      "market_dynamics": -0.636003,
      "relative_strength": -2.733652,
      "roc30": 16.15208237540616,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 4.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.724409448818902
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -16.352201257861633
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 34.34343434343435
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -4.675180678160821
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 3.26,
      "low_52": 1.549186,
      "position_52": 64.92897532987223,
      "drawdown": -18.404907975460112
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 53.833861729889165,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.950566266712636,
      "active_drawdown": -74.1388655420314
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 226,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 2.44,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.270440251572335,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 216,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 3.18,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 65.62500000000001,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 216,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 3.18,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 65.62500000000001,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 2.537046,
      "fair_value": 2.506635,
      "trend_gap": 4.84634492240188,
      "fair_value_gap": 6.1183618676033795
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 226,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 2.44,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.270440251572335,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 229,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 2.66,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.01639344262296,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 9.01639344262296,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "4.8% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-2.7",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+9.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+16.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 96,
      "history_score": 88,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 230,
      "confirmed_pivots": 30
    },
    "volume_ratio": 36.45802565273041,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 24,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 23,
          "positive_rate": 21.7,
          "median_return": -2.75,
          "bar_width": 13.75,
          "average_return": -4.26,
          "best_return": 6.25,
          "worst_return": -13.56
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 18,
          "positive_rate": 16.7,
          "median_return": -10.79,
          "bar_width": 53.949999999999996,
          "average_return": -6.04,
          "best_return": 29.25,
          "worst_return": -22.88
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 18,
          "positive_rate": 88.9,
          "median_return": 28.39,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 21.6,
          "best_return": 44.18,
          "worst_return": -28.08
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 2.44, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3.18; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 17,
      "constructive_percent": 77,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 14,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 124,
          "positive_rate": 54.0,
          "median_return": 0.64,
          "average_return": 1.25,
          "median_excess_return": 1.75,
          "excess_observations": 124,
          "p10": -7.48,
          "p90": 10.98
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 83,
          "positive_rate": 62.7,
          "median_return": 3.93,
          "average_return": 6.02,
          "median_excess_return": 4.48,
          "excess_observations": 83,
          "p10": -7.14,
          "p90": 17.28
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 59,
          "positive_rate": 67.8,
          "median_return": 8.73,
          "average_return": 6.13,
          "median_excess_return": 5.74,
          "excess_observations": 59,
          "p10": -18.11,
          "p90": 29.82
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 19.548872180451127,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 17,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 4.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 65% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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