{ "ticker": { "symbol": "JCTA", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Climate Transition Aware UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "AMS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 7.155, "latest_open": 7.155, "latest_high": 7.155, "latest_low": 7.155, "bar_count": 107, "analysis_bar_count": 107, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 5, "date": "2024-08-02", "price": 5.245, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 6, "date": "2024-08-09", "price": 4.805, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.38894184938037, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true 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"value": 2.2529344560926186 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.8361654648774983 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.3830422255383823 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.049126274973883 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.8036200318724601 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.6178130392886538 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.4736987593768811 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.3541641185892507 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.27078490421545875 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.5000340503900725 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.8796816179348057 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1168971004962862 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1039524747396323 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.190554087048988 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2300904178919392 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1515088843903805 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2019531443096194 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.1964185431071899 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.1415313540172025 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.9456462142355477 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7753989834553925 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6488488973977976 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.5561438054648925 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.4809748144643716 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.70; Wave 2 7.16.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 6.697, "confirmation": 7.174, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.25; Wave B 7.17.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.55; C length 0.02.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.03\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.247, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 53.86411889596603, "weeks": 43, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.155, "confirmation": 7.174, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.71; Wave 2 5.64.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.85; Wave 3 7.25.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.85; Wave 4 6.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 1.14, 1.61, 0.46.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 7.25; Wave 5 7.16.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.41\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 40, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.61568774629386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 56, "date": "2025-07-25", "price": 5.849, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.182590233545653, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 5.636, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6416481449820495, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.247, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.58410220014194, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.8388830819770074, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 6.697, "confirmation": 7.155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.70; Wave 2 7.16.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 6.697, "confirmation": 7.174, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.71; Wave 2 5.64.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.85; Wave 3 7.25.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.85; Wave 4 6.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 1.14, 1.61, 0.46.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 7.25; Wave 5 7.16.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.41\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 40, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.61568774629386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 56, "date": "2025-07-25", "price": 5.849, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.182590233545653, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 57, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 5.636, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6416481449820495, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.247, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.58410220014194, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.8388830819770074, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 6.697, "confirmation": 7.155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 66, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.3917598889618343, "fair_value_gap": 21.58818125492599, "market_activity": 12.348042, "market_dynamics": -0.297378, "relative_strength": -3.358656, "roc30": 11.171535114978253, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 2.4% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -0.2648452746027339 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.9880028228652122 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 28.479080624887775 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7.319, "low_52": 5.469, "position_52": 91.13513513513514, "drawdown": -2.2407432709386486 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.326902273752962, "average_weekly_range": 0.8046250302336877, "active_drawdown": -1.6224391585315474 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.697, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.5893473161308105, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 6.987867, "fair_value": 5.884618, "trend_gap": 2.3917598889618343, "fair_value_gap": 21.58818125492599 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 7.174, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.122592205465138, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -0.2648452746027339, "weeks": 13, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 41, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 107, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 37.243947858473, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 3.63, "bar_width": 18.15, "average_return": 3.52, "best_return": 10.08, "worst_return": -1.62 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 7.02, "bar_width": 35.099999999999994, "average_return": 7.27, "best_return": 9.75, "worst_return": 2.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 16.22, "bar_width": 81.1, "average_return": 15.44, "best_return": 19.19, "worst_return": 11.17 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 7.17, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.70; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 44.2, "median_return": -0.72, "average_return": -2.44, "median_excess_return": 0.05, "excess_observations": 43, "p10": -18.68, "p90": 9.52 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 48.5, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -1.24, "median_excess_return": -0.93, "excess_observations": 33, "p10": -25.23, "p90": 14.48 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 59.1, "median_return": 1.6, "average_return": 3.01, "median_excess_return": 5.45, "excess_observations": 22, "p10": -49.61, "p90": 51.03 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.401118099231309, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 43, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 10, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 65, "explanation": "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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