{ "ticker": { "symbol": "ESAB", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI Min TE UCITS ETF EUR CAPITALISATION", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 12.906, "latest_open": 13.066, "latest_high": 13.084, "latest_low": 12.774, "bar_count": 112, "analysis_bar_count": 112, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 37, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 11.446, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": 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"2026-02-13", "value": 1.5611374974132972 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.6016104965821472 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.6193901123272665 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.5721754613470473 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.4498001686878201 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.1525769498513014 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.8073711284118464 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.6829724064420196 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.7701493793072389 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.06019035206904 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.2936077851276298 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.4464363898337522 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.699067642282499 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.9375680017034873 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.1267719394719258 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.2690877501358537 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.3546003951090637 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.36389542665089 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.424042536963285 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.382550402623397 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.3948133849200013 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.400821716244245 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 2.306603787128381 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 2.2309925292051496 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 2.130406996145133 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.67; Wave 2 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.88; Wave 3 12.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.80\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.148, "confirmation": 12.906, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 66, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.67; Wave B 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.20; C length 1.76.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.80\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.906, "confirmation": 11.148, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 20 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.67; Wave 2 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.88; Wave 3 12.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.80\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.148, "confirmation": 12.906, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.67; Wave 2 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.88; Wave 3 12.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.80\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.148, "confirmation": 12.906, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.67; Wave 2 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 11.88; Wave 3 12.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.80\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11.148, "confirmation": 12.906, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 43, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 9.673, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.490127555477892, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.876, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.774733795099756, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.394102160415776, "fair_value_gap": 13.328218664980241, "market_activity": 52.410394, "market_dynamics": 0.654009, "relative_strength": 3.092771, "roc30": 12.226086956521744, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 5.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.8256503879507089 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.891040367574663 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 10.781115879828327 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 17.56239752231737 } ], "range": { "high_52": 13.204, "low_52": 11.046, "position_52": 86.19091751621872, "drawdown": -2.2568918509542564 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 10.710350619142128, "average_weekly_range": 1.6540083269582098, "active_drawdown": -1.9747835333434587 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 12.245467, "fair_value": 11.388161, "trend_gap": 5.394102160415776, "fair_value_gap": 13.328218664980241 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11.148, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.130010104412259, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 12.906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.769644779332625, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.1", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+52.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 73, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 32.180978174287084, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 0.9, "bar_width": 4.5, "average_return": 1.05, "best_return": 7.67, "worst_return": -5.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 89.5, "median_return": 5.6, "bar_width": 28.0, "average_return": 6.11, "best_return": 16.14, "worst_return": -0.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 88.9, "median_return": 10.84, "bar_width": 54.2, "average_return": 8.74, "best_return": 14.31, "worst_return": -0.5 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 12.91, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.15; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": "2026-08-05", "earnings_weeks": 1, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "volatility", "options_conviction": 45.62, "expected_move": 11.78781925, "invalidation_distance": 13.621571362157143, "collision": false, "flags": [ "Earnings are due in about 1 week." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 40, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 7, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 45, "explanation": "Price is 86% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Earnings are about 1 week(s) away." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Earnings are about 1 week(s) away." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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