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"2025-12-19", "value": -1.0717813083340597 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -0.6937299830906015 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -0.11376377551745481 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -0.047916294345899835 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.20843515803931592 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.42364562291494634 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.4614466521404723 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.6350261316746656 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.7751140065172897 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.7625685039077361 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.9275648550288628 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.9497407460456474 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.4182623660868243 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.7005217486111266 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.780452165297676 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.7240601882038957 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.5266606782967904 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.127753866888617 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.9459125294403619 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.8033071923641681 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.971947170118328 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.9773297788874118 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.7900542080347812 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.7545513286669675 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.886874779222663 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.0061206875559088 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.1004497857345432 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.9704302723819112 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.7821266770500932 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.8769190516833474 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.8763062177135887 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.9033435350686895 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.5853436627450757 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.5733178736408711 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.12; Wave 2 28.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.12162, "confirmation": 29.15, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 59, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 29.93; Wave B 29.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.81; C length 1.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.41\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 29.927305, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.726644942853364, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 28.0, "confirmation": 29.15, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.25; Wave B 29.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.23; C length 1.93.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 82, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 30.254633, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.028097, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.6646013521301, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 29.927305, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.726644942853364, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.439955084495582, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 28.0, "confirmation": 29.927305, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 63 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.598232803959377, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.25; Wave B 29.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.23; C length 1.93.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 82, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 30.254633, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.028097, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.6646013521301, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 29.927305, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.726644942853364, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.439955084495582, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 28.0, "confirmation": 29.927305, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 63 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.62389550247461, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.12; Wave 2 28.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.12162, "confirmation": 29.15, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.636726851732226, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.12; Wave 2 28.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.372824922075942, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 28.477701, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.999999999999999, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.6774563368019058, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.12162, "confirmation": 28.477701, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 75, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -3.2198011733769554, "fair_value_gap": -10.504047278666203, "market_activity": -18.498244, "market_dynamics": 0.352421, "relative_strength": -38.28991, "roc30": -14.45937746101134, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 3.2% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.88390569058599 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.8054390582698322 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -9.27511007359279 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -32.645185227665046 } ], "range": { "high_52": 42.31908, "low_52": 25.812299, "position_52": 13.253347215305036, "drawdown": -33.835990763504306 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 26.64510037192318, "average_weekly_range": 4.833416538325784, "active_drawdown": -32.72086412745437 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 27.12162, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.375000522098466, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 28.931538, "fair_value": 31.286331, "trend_gap": -3.2198011733769554, "fair_value_gap": -10.504047278666203 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 29.15, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.4788305418334105, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 28.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -3.945111492281299, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "3.2% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-38.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.5", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-14.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 40, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 105, "confirmed_pivots": 15 }, "volume_ratio": 143.99190109567616, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 22, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 23.8, "median_return": -2.67, "bar_width": 13.35, "average_return": -3.26, "best_return": 2.36, "worst_return": -13.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 12, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -7.14, "bar_width": 35.699999999999996, "average_return": -7.56, "best_return": -1.05, "worst_return": -15.73 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -13.56, "bar_width": 67.8, "average_return": -13.12, "best_return": -8.33, "worst_return": -16.86 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 29.15, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 27.12; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 165, "positive_rate": 49.1, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": -1.09, "excess_observations": 165, "p10": -9.12, "p90": 12.42 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 98, "positive_rate": 51.0, "median_return": 0.18, "average_return": 3.31, "median_excess_return": -3.71, "excess_observations": 98, "p10": -17.75, "p90": 25.61 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 48.1, "median_return": -2.24, "average_return": 1.87, "median_excess_return": -8.06, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -27.4, "p90": 39.69 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.1370714285714283, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.2% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 13% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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