{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7731", "name": "MARX Biotech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 4.67, "latest_open": 4.82, "latest_high": 5.3, "latest_low": 4.59, "bar_count": 130, "analysis_bar_count": 130, "reversal_percent": 11.484286371301554, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-03-07", "price": 8.05, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.660919540229896, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 78, "date": "2025-08-15", "price": 4.43, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -44.968944099378895, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true }, { 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11.484286371301554, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.039000459911087, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 83, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -17.154514812843704, "fair_value_gap": -32.767805482144816, "market_activity": -32.784136, "market_dynamics": -1.698586, "relative_strength": -34.688483, "roc30": 11.722488038277518, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 17.2% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.106776180698155 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -18.21366024518389 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -24.311183144246353 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -1.0593220338983014 } ], "range": { "high_52": 10.6, "low_52": 3.9, "position_52": 11.492537313432837, "drawdown": -55.943396226415096 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 53.149914374561405, "average_weekly_range": 14.338137568648449, "active_drawdown": -66.34234234234235 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 4.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.833333333333343, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.83, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.951672862453538, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.83, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.951672862453538, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 5.637, "fair_value": 6.946077, "trend_gap": -17.154514812843704, "fair_value_gap": -32.767805482144816 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 6.83, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.951672862453538, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 4.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.625183016105417, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -31.625183016105417, "weeks": 16, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "17.2% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-34.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-32.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 50, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 130, "confirmed_pivots": 21 }, "volume_ratio": 40.224622287478944, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 30, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 13.8, "median_return": -4.86, "bar_width": 24.3, "average_return": -5.26, "best_return": 20.33, "worst_return": -17.73 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 30.4, "median_return": -15.74, "bar_width": 78.7, "average_return": -8.37, "best_return": 19.19, "worst_return": -30.57 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 43.5, "median_return": -9.58, "bar_width": 47.9, "average_return": 3.57, "best_return": 53.03, "worst_return": -34.1 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 47.2, "median_return": -0.06, "average_return": 1.43, "median_excess_return": -1.42, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -6.35, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 99, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -0.76, "average_return": 2.5, "median_excess_return": -5.77, "excess_observations": 99, "p10": -14.77, "p90": 16.29 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 49.4, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 7.66, "median_excess_return": -5.33, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -20.18, "p90": 41.92 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 24, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 17.2% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 11% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", 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