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"value": -1.0901250929149728 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.8905296976371048 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.8652923221482562 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.975382679807777 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -1.3538625818309444 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -1.6338569721630747 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -1.7996602242503053 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -1.9282562625260506 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -1.9508415171012299 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -1.867349734643622 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.8104051166442334 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.8520627925563191 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.8310388673639935 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.60185848690214 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.270951211770075 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.0202422639645807 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.826808349286752 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.6429874544830264 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.5635886798100468 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.6373020672070193 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.764257963214176 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.1990726352084322 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.4020149870074405 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.5109441582979288 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.631574580886617 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.6485116608568888 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.5636340058958131 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.4646207733660412 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.3727597250981414 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 59.38; Wave 2 32.43.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 26.65; Wave 3 13.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 26.65; Wave 4 20.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 32.73, 18.50, 7.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 13.93; Wave 5 12.18.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 18% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 59.38368, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.37143506684491, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.653631, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.11623563915203, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 32.431095, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.67608608373095, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -57.03376959674041, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 20.119544, "confirmation": 12.18, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 82 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.43; Wave 2 20.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 13.93; Wave 3 12.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.43\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 133, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 32.431095, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.67608608373095, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -57.03376959674041, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 20.119544, "confirmation": 12.18, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 61, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.43; Wave B 20.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 18.50; C length 7.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.43\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 133, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 32.431095, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.67608608373095, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -57.03376959674041, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.18, "confirmation": 20.119544, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 6 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.63; Wave 2 20.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 13.93; Wave 3 11.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 13.93; Wave 4 12.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.84\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 135, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 24.630593, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.42637629552809, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 11.124401, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -44.70848345270648, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.489041252648112, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 20.119544, "confirmation": 11.124401, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 59.38; Wave 2 32.43.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 26.65; Wave 3 13.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 26.65; Wave 4 20.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 32.73, 18.50, 7.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 13.93; Wave 5 12.18.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 18% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 59.38368, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.37143506684491, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.653631, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.11623563915203, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 32.431095, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.67608608373095, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -57.03376959674041, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 20.119544, "confirmation": 12.18, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 82 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.12; Wave 2 12.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 156, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 10.708102, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.77761086434166, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.745647921545753, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 20.119544, "confirmation": 10.708102, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 79, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 59.38368, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.37143506684491, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.653631, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.11623563915203, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 32.431095, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.67608608373095, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 143, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 13.934419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -57.03376959674041, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -30.142240836173286, "fair_value_gap": -59.24693420173276, "market_activity": -29.375199, "market_dynamics": -0.209535, "relative_strength": -61.486215, "roc30": -55.92302930525068, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 30.1% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 13.745647921545753 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -35.90265117791245 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -56.82432946907537 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -78.56443599176917 } ], "range": { "high_52": 62.823903, "low_52": 10.073807, "position_52": 3.9927756719153633, "drawdown": -80.61247484098529 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 84.21325388538683, "average_weekly_range": 15.4947632266965, "active_drawdown": -79.48931423583045 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 17.435429, "fair_value": 29.887322, "trend_gap": -30.142240836173286, "fair_value_gap": -59.24693420173276 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 20.119544, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.38739067628153, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 160, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 12.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -39.46184863831905, "weeks": 11, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "30.1% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-61.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.4", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-55.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 161, "confirmed_pivots": 23 }, "volume_ratio": 71.54684049914879, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 35, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 51.4, "median_return": 0.42, "bar_width": 2.1, "average_return": 1.05, "best_return": 111.87, "worst_return": -51.43 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 37.9, "median_return": -24.71, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 10.95, "best_return": 223.59, "worst_return": -53.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 43.8, "median_return": -39.29, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -9.81, "best_return": 108.48, "worst_return": -62.33 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 20.12; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 8, "constructive_percent": 47, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 219, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.38, "average_return": 1.2, "median_excess_return": -0.69, "excess_observations": 219, "p10": -6.72, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 1.0, "average_return": 1.87, "median_excess_return": -1.41, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -11.11, "p90": 20.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 51.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 4.05, "median_excess_return": -7.71, "excess_observations": 54, "p10": -11.2, "p90": 18.33 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 32.06, "expected_move": 3.9408867, "invalidation_distance": 65.18509031198688, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 30.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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