{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EUPC", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape US Sector Value TR 1C (USD)", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 1481.0, "latest_open": 1481.0, "latest_high": 1510.0, "latest_low": 1473.599976, "bar_count": 27, "analysis_bar_count": 27, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 1393.199951, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 26, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 1481.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.302042211312132, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "rising", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": 4.744378047344488, "slope": 2.609738017295303, "dominant_period_weeks": 40, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 26, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0, "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.3041485836877114 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.45148725982450477 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.1324387608471427 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.1346400300491846 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.847154958081592 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 4.085461020321572 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 4.635859769829152 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 4.744378047344488 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "cresting", "alignment_score": 25, "risk_score": 75, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 14, "nearest_crest_window": 18, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 10, "period_range": [ 8, 12 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "cresting", "value": 2.2050434705913418, "slope": -0.17768003995400283, "amplitude": 1.28, "weeks_since_trough": 6, "weeks_since_crest": 2, "projected_trough_window": 4, "projected_crest_window": 8, "trough_window": { "start": 2, "midpoint": 4, "end": 6 }, "crest_window": { "start": 6, "midpoint": 8, "end": 10 }, "fld": { "value": 1440.200012, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 13, "displacement": 5, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 1434.800049, "state": "price above", "slope": 4.0, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 13, 20 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.960435196763702 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.45466051726622214 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.3846046355138758 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.5784515554867197 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.536806546627029 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1953236349172358 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.6181024468676095 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.4294580111475976 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2611556442243192 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1603124978706452 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8823505804671962 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.3992019120660975 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.112281297611906 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.3827235105453446 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 2.7942411701817815 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 2.6249340736491793 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 2.2050434705913418 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 15, 25 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "cresting", "value": 1.5251269532664182, "slope": -0.3283080371398841, "amplitude": 3.2, "weeks_since_trough": 6, "weeks_since_crest": 2, "projected_trough_window": 14, "projected_crest_window": 18, "trough_window": { "start": 9, "midpoint": 14, "end": 19 }, "crest_window": { "start": 13, "midpoint": 18, "end": 23 }, "fld": { "value": 1400.5, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 9, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [ 20 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.9013573556242139 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.2941500277344056 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.7124009304060301 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.8534349904063023 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.8922291161281828 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.7117932679027335 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.5251269532664182 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 1421.1000365, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.9604351967637021 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.45466051726622214 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.3846046355138758 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.5784515554867197 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.536806546627029 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1953236349172358 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.6181024468676097 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.4294580111475976 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2611556442243192 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.064124999148258 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8937546455614067 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.3361707814670822 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.8723530772883805 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.065150398461919 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 2.2530339377496222 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 2.077049590201312 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.7970935601963878 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.1197613183628805 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 6.363112214367497 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.302042211312132 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 1510.0, "low_52": 1350.199951, "position_52": 81.85232095892536, "drawdown": -1.9205298013245033 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 9.264041960865486, "average_weekly_range": 1.3653956937054765, "active_drawdown": -0.670690811535882 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 1393.199951, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 1393.199951, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": null, "fair_value": 1419.451841, "trend_gap": null, "fair_value_gap": 4.3360512292294064 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 1393.199951, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 26, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 1481.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.302042211312132, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 6.302042211312132, "weeks": 26, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 0, "neutral": 2, "observed": 3, "agreement": 33, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 24, "history_score": 10, "indicator_coverage": 38, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 27, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 265.2360515021459, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 25, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 27, "explanation": "Price is 82% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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