{ "ticker": { "symbol": "CEBW", "name": "iShares US Mortgage Backed Securities UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist)", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 4.9014, "latest_open": 4.9332, "latest_high": 4.9356, "latest_low": 4.8836, "bar_count": 126, "analysis_bar_count": 126, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-01", "price": 4.624777, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.9014, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.981326234756829, "weeks": 125, 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"2026-02-20", "value": 1.3167401079593017 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.3781194653839162 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.27689881455153 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.0622814844049464 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.8015595565847404 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.5653932846436265 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.5183072680716518 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.5522418988759158 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.6653789995025179 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.6430066988908577 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.5799972434990457 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.5457948800234115 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.34931157216634856 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.20170482510325083 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.23115488617456492 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.17042450729926015 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.212462401839073 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.24414338575552122 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.3445038569363002 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.30000825357707706 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.18802348876392308 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.09253539491213941 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.09860942757393801 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 91, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -1.3817302079868932, "fair_value_gap": 1.6536397059357284, "market_activity": -7.650861, "market_dynamics": -0.731165, "relative_strength": -4.4038, "roc30": -1.1974273514645495, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 1.4% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.7361668003207833 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.388634886260142 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -1.4314698946080548 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 2.231940984383412 } ], "range": { "high_52": 5.090958, "low_52": 4.791018, "position_52": 36.801360272054325, "drawdown": -3.723424942810369 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 4.336224829530674, "average_weekly_range": 0.7581911851568947, "active_drawdown": -2.9789043350302014 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 4.970073, "fair_value": 4.821667, "trend_gap": -1.3817302079868932, "fair_value_gap": 1.6536397059357284 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-01", "price": 4.624777, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.9014, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.981326234756829, "weeks": 125, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 5.981326234756829, "weeks": 125, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "1.4% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-4.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-7.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 65, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 126, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 69.20510461255351, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 10, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 0.65, "bar_width": 3.25, "average_return": 0.62, "best_return": 1.54, "worst_return": -0.51 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 3.17, "bar_width": 15.85, "average_return": 3.06, "best_return": 3.65, "worst_return": 2.26 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 4.38, "bar_width": 21.9, "average_return": 4.33, "best_return": 5.05, "worst_return": 3.53 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 199, "positive_rate": 67.3, "median_return": 1.64, "average_return": 1.95, "median_excess_return": -0.62, "excess_observations": 199, "p10": -3.88, "p90": 8.05 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 72.7, "median_return": 2.98, "average_return": 4.32, "median_excess_return": -2.07, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -3.02, "p90": 13.32 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 53, "positive_rate": 73.6, "median_return": 3.97, "average_return": 7.37, "median_excess_return": -1.64, "excess_observations": 53, "p10": -6.05, "p90": 22.81 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 26, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 37% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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