{ "ticker": { "symbol": "537A", "name": "NZAM ETF MSCI ACWI(Unhedged)", "exchange": "JPX" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 1129.0, "latest_open": 1154.0, "latest_high": 1155.0, "latest_low": 1126.0, "bar_count": 21, "analysis_bar_count": 21, "reversal_percent": 5.353461246720303, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 992.450012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 20, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1129.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.758878165039508, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "rising", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": 1.3518342758213078, "slope": 1.3518342758213078, "dominant_period_weeks": 40, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 20, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0, "series": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.0470108940748513 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.3518342758213078 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "cresting", "alignment_score": 38, "risk_score": 62, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": null, "nearest_crest_window": null, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 10, "period_range": [ 8, 12 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": 0.25450596475041065, "slope": -1.199746236823388, "amplitude": 1.929, "weeks_since_trough": 6, "weeks_since_crest": 4, "projected_trough_window": 4, "projected_crest_window": 6, "trough_window": { "start": 2, "midpoint": 4, "end": 6 }, "crest_window": { "start": 4, "midpoint": 6, "end": 8 }, "fld": { "value": 1159.0, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 0, "displacement": 5, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [ 14 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.9275314085684909 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2281392516403202 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.5709392268240245 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8569797422746748 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5063740017334162 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8375772894788931 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.5266506578696561 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4542522015737986 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.3020136144009025 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.024574514813265 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.25450596475041065 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 15, 25 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "neutral", "value": 0.856409650983681, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": 3.446, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 1118.5, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 8, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.856409650983681 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 1496.2250060000001, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.9275314085684908 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2281392516403202 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.5709392268240245 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8569797422746748 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5063740017334162 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.837577289478893 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.5266506578696561 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4542522015737986 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.3020136144009025 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.009829805925306 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.6156481764903728 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.565537994752486, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.353461246720303, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.747422872704212, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.8330494037478706 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.3464991023339319 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": null }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 2000.0, "low_52": 953.0, "position_52": 16.809933142311365, "drawdown": -43.55 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 28.423216350976844, "average_weekly_range": 4.357359074129555, "active_drawdown": -3.8330494037478706 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 992.450012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 992.450012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": null, "fair_value": 1109.545239, "trend_gap": null, "fair_value_gap": 1.7533995294805607 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 992.450012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1129.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.758878165039508, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 13.758878165039508, "weeks": 20, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 0, "neutral": 2, "observed": 3, "agreement": 33, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 23, "history_score": 8, "indicator_coverage": 37, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 21, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 113.92199056074934, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 62, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 62/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-07" ], "close": [ 992.450012, 992.0, 991.0, 1143.0, 1129.0, 1114.0, 1096.0, 1114.0, 1090.0, 1102.0, 1106.0, 1147.0, 1105.0, 1144.0, 1113.0, 1145.0, 1174.0, 1154.0, 1165.0, 1155.0, 1129.0 ], "trend": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "sma30": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "roc30": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "drawdown": [ 0.0, -0.045343543207092545, -0.14610428560305314, 0.0, -1.2248468941382327, -2.537182852143482, -4.111986001749782, -2.537182852143482, -4.636920384951881, -3.5870516185476817, -3.237095363079615, 0.0, -3.6617262423714037, -0.26155187445510025, -2.964254577157803, -0.17436791630340018, 0.0, -1.7035775127768313, -0.7666098807495741, -1.6183986371379897, -3.8330494037478706 ], "volatility": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 39.056101254390505, 36.825606331111324, 34.99337160547717, 33.76804553186335, 33.883061238764455, 32.914156409143956, 32.53578808284684, 31.62926129930731, 30.734420902538297, 30.204728662689302, 29.35373847343041, 28.722454416749343, 28.423216350976844 ], "volumeRatio": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 154.09673535868563, 20.288417166589756, 44.1954834156669, 1.8164204407846936, 2.688868873706641, 1.1983407589491473, 7.335764032923607, 1.2107329842931938, 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