{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "3170",
    "name": "Hang Seng Investment Funds Series V - Hang Seng Gold Etf",
    "exchange": "HKG"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 13.57,
  "latest_open": 12.85,
  "latest_high": 13.59,
  "latest_low": 12.8,
  "bar_count": 26,
  "analysis_bar_count": 26,
  "reversal_percent": 6.520754716981123,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 4,
      "date": "2026-03-13",
      "price": 16.049999,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 6,
      "date": "2026-03-27",
      "price": 14.04,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -12.523359035723308,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 9,
      "date": "2026-04-17",
      "price": 15.08,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 22,
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "price": 12.62,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
      "weeks": 13,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 25,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 13.57,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": false
    }
  ],
  "cycle": {
    "phase": "troughing",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -7.764758019105434,
    "slope": 0.6819382243026784,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 16,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 3,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 5,
    "series": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -3.4083584924861805
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -5.876279792742819
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -8.446696243408113
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -11.354405787557692
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -10.27919150991271
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -9.776817121067547
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -7.764758019105434
      }
    ]
  },
  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "troughing",
    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 17,
    "nearest_crest_window": 16,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 10,
        "period_range": [
          8,
          12
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "rising",
        "value": -0.23026061104477535,
        "slope": 1.7290787403563015,
        "amplitude": 3.605,
        "weeks_since_trough": 6,
        "weeks_since_crest": 10,
        "projected_trough_window": 4,
        "projected_crest_window": 10,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 2,
          "midpoint": 4,
          "end": 6
        },
        "crest_window": {
          "start": 8,
          "midpoint": 10,
          "end": 12
        },
        "fld": {
          "value": 13.175,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 1,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 11.235000000000001,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -0.22249999999999992,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          11,
          19
        ],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-02-20",
            "value": null
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            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
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            "date": "2026-03-06",
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            "date": "2026-03-13",
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            "date": "2026-04-03",
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": -1.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": -1.1035764025752195
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": -1.2420897811508869
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": -0.9399813271683838
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": -0.9799937757227946
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": -1.0050525478079264
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": -0.9372039803218454
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": -1.1341832099889084
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": -2.1033626295086876
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": -2.1756949981133458
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": -2.7230696359791002
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": -2.3479761217169877
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": -2.0506589284206718
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -1.9593393514010768
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -1.573848442516713
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -1.1852568186482688
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": -0.23026061104477535
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        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 20,
        "label": "20w",
        "estimated_period": 20,
        "period_range": [
          15,
          25
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "troughing",
        "value": -0.6271173587617114,
        "slope": 0.3411067569745776,
        "amplitude": 11.017,
        "weeks_since_trough": 3,
        "weeks_since_crest": 4,
        "projected_trough_window": 17,
        "projected_crest_window": 16,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 12,
          "midpoint": 17,
          "end": 22
        },
        "crest_window": {
          "start": 11,
          "midpoint": 16,
          "end": 21
        },
        "fld": {
          "value": 14.09,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 8,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          22
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        "series": [
          {
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            "date": "2026-02-20",
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            "date": "2026-02-27",
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            "date": "2026-03-06",
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            "date": "2026-03-13",
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
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            "date": "2026-05-01",
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            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
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            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
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            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
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            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": -1.0
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": -0.9506059806732351
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": -0.9418169315030923
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -0.968224115736289
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -0.9307890907442118
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -0.8530734695495398
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          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": -0.6271173587617114
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        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 40,
        "label": "40w",
        "estimated_period": 40,
        "period_range": [
          30,
          50
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 15.36,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-13",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-02-20",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
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        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 80,
        "label": "80w",
        "estimated_period": 80,
        "period_range": [
          61,
          99
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": null,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
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            "date": "2026-02-20",
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            "date": "2026-07-31",
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        ]
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    ],
    "composite": [
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": -1.0050525478079264
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": -0.9372039803218454
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": -1.1341832099889084
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": -2.1756949981133458
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -1.364670210002204
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -1.1880128314532123
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -0.9859468091890313
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -0.46837465967493697
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 85,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 16.05; Wave 2 15.08.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 14.04; Wave 3 12.62.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 14.04; Wave 4 13.57.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 4,
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "price": 16.049999,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": null,
          "weeks": 0,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 6,
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "price": 14.04,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -12.523359035723308,
          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 9,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 15.08,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 22,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 12.62,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 25,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 13.57,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 15.08,
      "confirmation": 12.62,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 46
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 15.08; Wave 2 13.57.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 9,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 15.08,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 22,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 12.62,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 25,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 13.57,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 15.08,
        "confirmation": 12.62,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 7
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 85,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 16.05; Wave 2 15.08.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 14.04; Wave 3 12.62.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 14.04; Wave 4 13.57.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 4,
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "price": 16.049999,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": null,
            "weeks": 0,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 6,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 14.04,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.523359035723308,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 9,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 15.08,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 22,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 12.62,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 25,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 13.57,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 15.08,
        "confirmation": 12.62,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 46
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 10.433207547169797,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.520754716981123,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 16.05; Wave 2 15.08.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 14.04; Wave 3 12.62.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 14.04; Wave 4 13.57.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 4,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 16.049999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 6,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 14.04,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.523359035723308,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 15.08,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 22,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 12.62,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 25,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 13.57,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 15.08,
          "confirmation": 12.62,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 46
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.564528301886786,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 16.05; Wave 2 15.08.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 14.04; Wave 3 12.62.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 14.04; Wave 4 13.57.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 4,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 16.049999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 6,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 14.04,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.523359035723308,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 15.08,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 22,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 12.62,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 25,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 13.57,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 15.08,
          "confirmation": 12.62,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 46
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 1 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.545454545454544
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -8.742434431741755
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 17.1,
      "low_52": 12.55,
      "position_52": 22.417582417582405,
      "drawdown": -20.643274853801174
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 23.56754176443215,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.7325881937829193,
      "active_drawdown": -17.00305810397554
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 22,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 12.62,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 9,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 15.08,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 7.407407407407414,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 22,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 12.62,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 14.337308,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": -5.35182755368023
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 22,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 12.62,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.312997347480113,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 25,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 13.57,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 7.527733755942958,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "+0.0",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 2,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 33,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 34,
      "history_score": 10,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 26,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
    },
    "volume_ratio": 140.0820585582189,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 12.62, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 15.08; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 27,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 36,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^HSI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 11.127487103905672,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 22% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-07"
    ],
    "close": [
      15.71,
      15.88,
      16.35,
      16.280001,
      16.049999,
      14.9,
      14.04,
      14.66,
      15.0,
      15.08,
      14.82,
      14.55,
      14.87,
      14.43,
      14.28,
      14.3,
      14.09,
      13.25,
      13.52,
      12.73,
      13.17,
      12.98,
      12.62,
      12.79,
      12.85,
      13.57
    ],
    "trend": [
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null
    ],
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