{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7376", "name": "Csop Leveraged And Inverse Series - Csop Bitcoin Futures Daily (-1X) Inverse Product", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 5.71, "latest_open": 5.805, "latest_high": 5.87, "latest_low": 5.645, "bar_count": 107, "analysis_bar_count": 107, "reversal_percent": 9.790937323886201, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2024-10-11", "price": 8.315, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 26, "date": "2025-01-24", "price": 4.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": 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"value": 0.6942902733637355 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.0269397666345788 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.123299143202025 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.304472848696324 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.3397836220695707 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.212170212638032 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1320234384123298 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9733007094684861 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9277866939059709 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9017303115015602 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.68; Wave 2 5.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 4.682, "confirmation": 5.965, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.17; Wave B 5.96.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.48; C length 0.25.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.17\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 6.165, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 42.77443260768876, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 5.71, "confirmation": 5.965, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.14; Wave 2 5.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 6.145, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.247330200768882, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.62, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.54353132628152, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6014234875444815, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 6.145, "confirmation": 5.62, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.665499718217923, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.790937323886201, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.68; Wave 2 5.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 4.682, "confirmation": 5.965, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.85365612672034, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.14; Wave 2 5.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 6.145, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.247330200768882, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.62, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.54353132628152, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6014234875444815, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 6.145, "confirmation": 5.62, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 81, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.813586924697773, "fair_value_gap": 7.480188163739576, "market_activity": 14.034012, "market_dynamics": 0.350016, "relative_strength": 15.827025, "roc30": 25.16440157825514, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 4.8% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.8680555555555525 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 19.957983193277315 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -7.380373073803732 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 49.08616187989556 } ], "range": { "high_52": 6.37, "low_52": 3.482, "position_52": 77.14681440443213, "drawdown": -10.361067503924648 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 34.54010105367137, "average_weekly_range": 4.090883849892459, "active_drawdown": -36.20111731843575 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 4.682, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.055150040551492, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 5.447767, "fair_value": 5.312607, "trend_gap": 4.813586924697773, "fair_value_gap": 7.480188163739576 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 5.965, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.40281930798803, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -4.27493713327745, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.8", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+25.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 41, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 107, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 36.86629069316385, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 24, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 43.5, "median_return": -3.11, "bar_width": 15.549999999999999, "average_return": 2.32, "best_return": 38.84, "worst_return": -12.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 78.9, "median_return": 9.73, "bar_width": 48.650000000000006, "average_return": 5.56, "best_return": 23.02, "worst_return": -22.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 27.43, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 26.28, "best_return": 35.71, "worst_return": 15.4 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 5.96, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 4.68; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 51.1, "median_return": 0.21, "average_return": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -7.36, "p90": 8.08 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 186, "positive_rate": 55.4, "median_return": 2.14, "average_return": 1.86, "median_excess_return": 0.52, "excess_observations": 186, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 14.09 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 107, "positive_rate": 57.0, "median_return": 1.79, "average_return": 3.17, "median_excess_return": 1.47, "excess_observations": 107, "p10": -21.92, "p90": 25.42 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 18.00350262697022, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 30, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 9, "explanation": "Price is 77% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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