{ "ticker": { "symbol": "83046", "name": "China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited - Select OFC Ether ETF Fund", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 3.86, "latest_open": 3.754, "latest_high": 3.874, "latest_low": 3.754, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 12.34253334907333, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 19, "date": "2024-09-13", "price": 5.19, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.85899094437257, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 32, "date": "2024-12-13", "price": 8.78, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 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"date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.585505294748618 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.503399927109686 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.3785493469205772 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.234736427462285 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.0862555891506376 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.9944939341480488 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.9375378428828807 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.00; Wave 2 4.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.98; Wave 3 3.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.98; Wave 4 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.539249146757673, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.15488936473947, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.228, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.81; Wave 2 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.228, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.00; Wave 2 4.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.98; Wave 3 3.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.98; Wave 4 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.544585987261142, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.15488936473947, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.228, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 45 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.74805335851733, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.22; Wave 2 4.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.98; Wave 3 3.41.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.98; Wave 4 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 13% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 67, "date": "2025-08-15", "price": 10.22, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.50947731188973, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -61.03718199608611, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3.414, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.052369077306732, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.063854715875797, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.414, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.34253334907333, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.00; Wave 2 4.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.98; Wave 3 3.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.98; Wave 4 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.539249146757673, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.15488936473947, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.228, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.63977334435133, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.00; Wave 2 4.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 3.98; Wave 3 3.23.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 3.98; Wave 4 3.86.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.544585987261142, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.15488936473947, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 4.812, "confirmation": 3.228, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 64, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.539249146757673, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 3.982, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -43.15488936473947, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -10.743871214042914, "fair_value_gap": -37.354239056872935, "market_activity": -24.331945, "market_dynamics": 0.050478, "relative_strength": -34.245986, "roc30": -41.470811220621684, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 10.7% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.9252077562326875 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -17.626973965002136 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -3.0637870416876023 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -55.037856726849164 } ], "range": { "high_52": 10.51, "low_52": 3.228, "position_52": 8.678934358692663, "drawdown": -63.273073263558516 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 37.582393249009456, "average_weekly_range": 2.9611660536986273, "active_drawdown": -62.23091976516635 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 4.812, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.84379708689101, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 4.324633, "fair_value": 6.16163, "trend_gap": -10.743871214042914, "fair_value_gap": -37.354239056872935 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3.228, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.917705735660846, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 19.578686493184623, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "10.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-34.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-24.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-41.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 14 }, "volume_ratio": 86.85998490163863, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 56.2, "median_return": 3.27, "bar_width": 16.35, "average_return": 2.87, "best_return": 48.09, "worst_return": -27.48 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 30.0, "median_return": -18.74, "bar_width": 93.69999999999999, "average_return": 3.45, "best_return": 73.41, "worst_return": -25.38 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 14.06, "bar_width": 70.3, "average_return": 10.68, "best_return": 16.84, "worst_return": 1.15 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 3.23, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 4.81; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 24.663212435233174, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 2, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 10.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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