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Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 8, "period_range": [ 6, 10 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": -0.9836287775873607, "slope": -1.7243382818084814, "amplitude": 2.22, "weeks_since_trough": 6, "weeks_since_crest": 4, "projected_trough_window": 2, "projected_crest_window": 4, "trough_window": { "start": 0, "midpoint": 2, "end": 4 }, "crest_window": { "start": 2, "midpoint": 4, "end": 6 }, "fld": { "value": 12.405000000000001, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 1, "displacement": 4, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 12.386, "state": "price below", "slope": 0.09299999999999997, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased 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"value": 0.8222232317522871 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.9675926364706728 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.0485462429672907 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.1225963621198167 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.2483900861465922 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3046758418010742 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2307611981114261 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.282041788385733 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.206897531277918 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.108648349326082 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1614894839598902 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.186426825677608 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.131375377969728 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0138314430958557 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7163726578964686 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6332865743996936 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.31; Wave 2 11.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.31, "confirmation": 11.446, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.90; Wave B 11.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.41; C length 0.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.25\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 258, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 10.898, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.086221912558785, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.804, "confirmation": 11.446, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.60; Wave 2 11.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 236, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 12.597198, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.834430387530894, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 240, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 10.528072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.425287591732705, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.11929401698621, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.597198, "confirmation": 10.528072, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.60; Wave 2 11.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 236, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 12.597198, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.834430387530894, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 240, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 10.528072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.425287591732705, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.11929401698621, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.597198, "confirmation": 10.528072, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.31; Wave 2 11.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.31, "confirmation": 11.446, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.31; Wave 2 11.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.31, "confirmation": 11.446, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 74, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.4195801526055205, "fair_value_gap": 23.48112153161783, "market_activity": 12.105956, "market_dynamics": 0.101182, "relative_strength": 2.746978, "roc30": 8.938755266742145, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 2.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.06371911573472 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.1460713049498192 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.240690380355408 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 25.712296907652153 } ], "range": { "high_52": 12.676, "low_52": 9.300185, "position_52": 74.16920062266446, "drawdown": -6.8791416850741545 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.969285289362134, "average_weekly_range": 2.574298503031997, "active_drawdown": -7.361561687554653 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 270, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.956505780877233, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 11.52514, "fair_value": 9.559356, "trend_gap": 2.4195801526055205, "fair_value_gap": 23.48112153161783 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 11.446, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.018683996750616, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 11.804, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3.127730211427578, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 26 }, "volume_ratio": 162.74675874649813, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 63, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 62, "positive_rate": 56.5, "median_return": 0.59, "bar_width": 2.9499999999999997, "average_return": 0.29, "best_return": 20.15, "worst_return": -16.43 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 55, "positive_rate": 56.4, "median_return": 0.68, "bar_width": 3.4000000000000004, "average_return": -0.34, "best_return": 11.56, "worst_return": -14.47 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 51.1, "median_return": 1.22, "bar_width": 6.1, "average_return": 1.48, "best_return": 16.88, "worst_return": -13.1 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 11.45, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 12.31; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.286682480515082, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 74% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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