{ "ticker": { "symbol": "GXLD", "name": "Global X Gold Bullion ETF", "exchange": "ASX" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 60.68, "latest_open": 58.0, "latest_high": 60.740002, "latest_low": 57.389999, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 5.266245433933455, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-10-17", "price": 67.389999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 78, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 60.869999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.675026111812233, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { 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"value": -0.3758911742144404 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.48006337328756926 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.5445779938058553 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.41427734596708793 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.3659700216285242 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.45963311198358314 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.4519118976847789 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.39189314587272095 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.14073828048293485 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 72.91; Wave 2 67.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 64.11; Wave 3 56.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 64.11; Wave 4 60.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 72.910004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.285204332129965, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 64.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.06967839420226, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 67.68, "confirmation": 56.939999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.68; Wave 2 60.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 67.68, "confirmation": 56.939999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 72.91; Wave 2 67.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 64.11; Wave 3 56.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 64.11; Wave 4 60.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 72.910004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.285204332129965, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 64.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.06967839420226, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 67.68, "confirmation": 56.939999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.425992694293528, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.266245433933455, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 72.91; Wave 2 67.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 64.11; Wave 3 56.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 64.11; Wave 4 60.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 72.910004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.285204332129965, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 64.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.06967839420226, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 67.68, "confirmation": 56.939999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.6863718037534183, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 72.91; Wave 2 67.68.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 64.11; Wave 3 56.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 64.11; Wave 4 60.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 72.910004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.285204332129965, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 64.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.06967839420226, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 67.68, "confirmation": 56.939999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 78, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 72.910004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.285204332129965, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 64.110001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.06967839420226, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -6.592504892079011, "fair_value_gap": 16.90257270620458, "market_activity": -18.284668, "market_dynamics": -0.852783, "relative_strength": -8.606067, "roc30": -8.820439872857712, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 6.6% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.7951906284125183 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -7.003831417624521 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -12.375451263537906 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 16.53543307086614 } ], "range": { "high_52": 79.120003, "low_52": 51.009998, "position_52": 34.40057018844358, "drawdown": -23.306372978777564 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 20.686075752743214, "average_weekly_range": 2.985834135139641, "active_drawdown": -18.110659058317385 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 67.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.568552401052076, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 64.962667, "fair_value": 51.906471, "trend_gap": -6.592504892079011, "fair_value_gap": 16.90257270620458 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 56.939999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.868795803782515, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 60.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 6.5683193988113695, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "6.6% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 5, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 81.58762029008264, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -2.13, "bar_width": 10.649999999999999, "average_return": -2.03, "best_return": -0.27, "worst_return": -3.59 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 56.94, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 67.68; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 38, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 145, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.01, "average_return": 1.03, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 145, "p10": -6.39, "p90": 7.59 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 62, "positive_rate": 71.0, "median_return": 1.78, "average_return": 3.34, "median_excess_return": 0.76, "excess_observations": 62, "p10": -7.72, "p90": 14.66 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 70.3, "median_return": 6.49, "average_return": 10.17, "median_excess_return": 2.4, "excess_observations": 37, "p10": -8.21, "p90": 27.88 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 11.535926170072523, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 34% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", 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