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        "label": "10w",
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        "timing_note": "No measurable positive repeat",
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        "invalidation": 690.0,
        "confirmation": 777.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 25
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.833127054924267,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 690.00; Wave 2 771.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 7% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 690.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 264,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 777.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.608695652173912,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 771.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -0.7722007722007722,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 690.0,
          "confirmation": 777.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 25
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.145704409327666,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 804.00; Wave 2 771.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 249,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 804.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.821974965229485,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 690.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 771.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.73913043478261,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 804.0,
          "confirmation": 690.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.301993086529366,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 804.00; Wave 2 771.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 249,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 804.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.821974965229485,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 690.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 771.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.73913043478261,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 804.0,
          "confirmation": 690.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 74,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 249,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 804.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.821974965229485,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 690.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 771.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.73913043478261,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 3.640595149517441,
      "fair_value_gap": 18.36710051688886,
      "market_activity": 9.202358,
      "market_dynamics": 0.663034,
      "relative_strength": -13.332891,
      "roc30": 7.232267037552155,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.6% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -0.7722007722007722
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 7.232267037552155
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -4.104477611940299
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 1.8791165670935548
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 808.0,
      "low_52": 690.0,
      "position_52": 68.64406779661017,
      "drawdown": -4.579207920792079
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 19.156753691550982,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.7749682207231277,
      "active_drawdown": -5.554456923458236
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 690.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 249,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 804.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.821974965229485,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 249,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 804.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.821974965229485,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 743.916994,
      "fair_value": 651.363425,
      "trend_gap": 3.640595149517441,
      "fair_value_gap": 18.36710051688886
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 690.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.17910447761194,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 771.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.73913043478261,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 11.73913043478261,
      "weeks": 15,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "3.6% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-13.3",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+9.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.7",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+7.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 34
    },
    "volume_ratio": 166.96627028915182,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 97,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 96,
          "positive_rate": 43.8,
          "median_return": -0.78,
          "bar_width": 3.9000000000000004,
          "average_return": -0.4,
          "best_return": 15.81,
          "worst_return": -14.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 91,
          "positive_rate": 58.2,
          "median_return": 1.95,
          "bar_width": 9.75,
          "average_return": 2.86,
          "best_return": 21.03,
          "worst_return": -14.56
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 91,
          "positive_rate": 64.8,
          "median_return": 5.85,
          "bar_width": 29.25,
          "average_return": 6.33,
          "best_return": 28.22,
          "worst_return": -15.52
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 690.00, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 804.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 14,
      "constructive_percent": 58,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 803,
          "positive_rate": 52.9,
          "median_return": 0.61,
          "average_return": 1.27,
          "median_excess_return": -0.58,
          "excess_observations": 803,
          "p10": -8.65,
          "p90": 11.47
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 287,
          "positive_rate": 59.6,
          "median_return": 3.33,
          "average_return": 4.72,
          "median_excess_return": -1.15,
          "excess_observations": 287,
          "p10": -14.38,
          "p90": 24.49
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 162,
          "positive_rate": 64.8,
          "median_return": 7.5,
          "average_return": 10.36,
          "median_excess_return": -2.59,
          "excess_observations": 162,
          "p10": -15.19,
          "p90": 36.02
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^N225",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 4.280155642023346,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 30,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 69% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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