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}, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.3224668488223802 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.1865450167483646 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.6343254957707919 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.7570035398275465 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.9296064297153346 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.5749612926062369 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.9098669639062476 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.1026913067404664 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.221530043486422 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.1587824678053256 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.1466488021626455 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.175986649293992 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.2785126663873707 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.2864134182025966 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.317279199172708 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.199477571006863 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.197937002277275 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.1753469114663933 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.8408741417587242 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.5646712145045996 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.1031080050205684 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.6875715442705681 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 0.4915350016648815 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 163.00; Wave B 144.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 55.50; C length 33.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 142, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 163.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 139.7058823529412, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 111.0, "confirmation": 144.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 107.50; Wave 2 111.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 107.5, "confirmation": 144.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.00; Wave B 140.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 17.00; C length 29.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.74\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 152, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 127.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.805555555555555, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 140.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.62992125984252, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.99644128113879, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 111.0, "confirmation": 140.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.24510964392896, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.00; Wave 2 111.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 104.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.430555555555557, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.220095693779904, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 144.0, "confirmation": 104.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.028193527455599, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 163.00; Wave B 144.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 55.50; C length 33.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 142, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 163.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 139.7058823529412, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 111.0, "confirmation": 144.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.419735469218919, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.00; Wave B 140.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 17.00; C length 29.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.74\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 152, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 127.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.805555555555555, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 140.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.62992125984252, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.99644128113879, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 111.0, "confirmation": 140.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 64, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 142, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 163.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 139.7058823529412, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.4457775726811315, "fair_value_gap": 8.500668652476532, "market_activity": -16.104458, "market_dynamics": -1.053306, "relative_strength": -12.164092, "roc30": 57.4468085106383, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 2.4% above its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.721030042918455 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.255813953488372 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 63.23529411764706 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 50.0 } ], "range": { "high_52": 220.5, "low_52": 58.5, "position_52": 32.407407407407405, "drawdown": -49.65986394557823 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 127.36260706982895, "average_weekly_range": 14.544091436204374, "active_drawdown": -36.91046990360858 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 107.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.04907975460123, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 108.35, "fair_value": 102.303517, "trend_gap": 2.4457775726811315, "fair_value_gap": 8.500668652476532 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 151, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 144.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.95348837209303, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 159, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 111.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -22.916666666666668, "weeks": 8, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-12.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.1", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+57.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 160, "confirmed_pivots": 21 }, "volume_ratio": 21.10415549481475, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 1.96, "bar_width": 9.8, "average_return": 7.22, "best_return": 18.36, "worst_return": 1.35 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 15.32, "bar_width": 76.6, "average_return": 32.68, "best_return": 77.73, "worst_return": 4.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 109.35, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 109.35, "best_return": 113.75, "worst_return": 104.95 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 144.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 111.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 632, "positive_rate": 49.2, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 2.64, "median_excess_return": -1.6, "excess_observations": 632, "p10": -9.5, "p90": 16.1 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 241, "positive_rate": 53.5, "median_return": 1.16, "average_return": 8.71, "median_excess_return": -3.73, "excess_observations": 241, "p10": -14.8, "p90": 34.54 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 135, "positive_rate": 47.4, "median_return": -0.45, "average_return": 14.54, "median_excess_return": -6.25, "excess_observations": 135, "p10": -17.37, "p90": 61.54 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 32% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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