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"value": 0.21991269908574743 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.40575232649180815 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 0.7827418917926348 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 1.079582346643067 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 1.2246641931524018 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 1.036495742521855 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 0.7208810666132445 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 0.692118362635721 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 0.534160930508025 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.41907407013993325 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 0.38229532484674733 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.3267181701987291 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.31531356175757136 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.28507195555773884 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.21959526621207479 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.0667683270100334 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -0.02255111877220278 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -0.13112884835601554 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.25195293128426355 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.5408405788741854 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.6650459168335046 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.8361842620628835 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -0.9636867168237329 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -1.0895180116746375 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -1.2039331206545123 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.1851203103650216 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -1.1919425550343679 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.8940067256252602 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.7308338589594214 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.7458095378283726 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.7462812208652546 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.7325090708768693 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.7654833249448079 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.8121444478878411 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -1.0204483986983237 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.1470133749806597 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.2055679951903369 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.1648872915048858 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.1267804677681155 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.0308594374933193 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.9606544470747764 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.9506598605655598 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.9208980292526516 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.9255279446676143 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.933193156056169 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.927474103881938 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.9329164447871159 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.9496205611896034 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.9797064594234661 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.0967331225926062 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.0931364124429486 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.052662214190196 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.116884807916941 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.41066086193188756 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.0789545533159772 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.23675427125406856 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 0.2421457729743998 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.55; Wave B 35.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.40; C length 4.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.64\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.4, "confirmation": 35.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.55; Wave 2 35.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.15; Wave 3 31.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.64\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 35.5, "confirmation": 31.4, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 22 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.55; Wave B 35.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.40; C length 4.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.64\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.4, "confirmation": 35.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.02370619478102, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.00; Wave 2 31.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 24.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.623927727859133, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.54733900252501, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 24.0, "confirmation": 38.549999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.389816371738137, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.55; Wave B 35.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.40; C length 4.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.64\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.4, "confirmation": 35.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.572871460216695, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.55; Wave B 35.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.40; C length 4.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.64\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.4, "confirmation": 35.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 38.549999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 60.62499583333334, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.601808472161046, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Activity is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.320542960728475, "fair_value_gap": -14.204098885513973, "market_activity": 51.957133, "market_dynamics": 1.132567, "relative_strength": -32.492753, "roc30": 5.546218487394953, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 6.3% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 30.83333333333333 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 11.34751378200305 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -0.6329113924050722 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -36.56565656565657 } ], "range": { "high_52": 49.799999, "low_52": 23.0, "position_52": 31.343284751615098, "drawdown": -36.94778989855 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 94.53836408497868, "average_weekly_range": 11.176666646024874, "active_drawdown": -50.78369828814574 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 24.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.623927727859133, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 24.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.623927727859133, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 29.533333, "fair_value": 36.598485, "trend_gap": 6.320542960728475, "fair_value_gap": -14.204098885513973 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.419899818357708, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -11.54929577464789, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-32.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+52.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 77, "history_score": 38, "indicator_coverage": 98, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 99, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 109.09775538603175, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 35.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 31.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 772, "positive_rate": 56.5, "median_return": 1.65, "average_return": 3.73, "median_excess_return": 0.25, "excess_observations": 772, "p10": -12.59, "p90": 22.63 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 274, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 6.46, "average_return": 13.01, "median_excess_return": 2.83, "excess_observations": 274, "p10": -16.66, "p90": 48.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 150, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 9.26, "average_return": 26.64, "median_excess_return": 8.64, "excess_observations": 150, "p10": -16.33, "p90": 82.79 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 6, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 2, "explanation": "Price is 6.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 31% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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