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        "label": "10w",
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      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
      "direction": "bullish",
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 46.60; Wave 2 46.80.",
          "hard": true
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      ],
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
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      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 252,
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "price": 46.599998,
          "kind": "low",
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          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
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        {
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          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "price": 52.400002,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 9,
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          "label": "1"
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        {
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          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
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      "invalidation": 46.599998,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 28
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
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        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
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          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 44.02; Wave 2 46.80.",
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          }
        ],
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            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.",
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        ],
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            "move_percent": -8.30337632657635,
            "weeks": 25,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 44.021358,
        "confirmation": 51.037865,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 43
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 55.56; Wave B 51.04.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 11.53; C length 4.24.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.37\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 242,
            "date": "2026-02-20",
            "price": 55.55534,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 31.81300050463749,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 246,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 44.021358,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -20.76124815364284,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 250,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 51.037865,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.938869945811296,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 46.799999,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -8.30337632657635,
            "weeks": 25,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 46.799999,
        "confirmation": 51.037865,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 28
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 12.93054684461805,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 44.02; Wave 2 46.80.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 44.021358,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.76124815364284,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 51.037865,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.938869945811296,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 46.799999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.30337632657635,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 44.021358,
          "confirmation": 51.037865,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 43
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.081591777886281,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 46.60; Wave 2 46.80.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-05-01",
              "price": 46.599998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.695244207413452,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 52.400002,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.446361049200048,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 46.799999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.687028218052362,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 46.599998,
          "confirmation": 52.400002,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 28
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.657114244520397,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 46.60; Wave 2 46.80.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 252,
              "date": "2026-05-01",
              "price": 46.599998,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.695244207413452,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 52.400002,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.446361049200048,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 46.799999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.687028218052362,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 46.599998,
          "confirmation": 52.400002,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 4,
      "changes": 6,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 50,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "price": 46.599998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.695244207413452,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 52.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 12.446361049200048,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 46.799999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.687028218052362,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -3.623068412157274,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.8426406754551765,
      "market_activity": -10.178472,
      "market_dynamics": -0.732415,
      "relative_strength": -6.946657,
      "roc30": 3.268090920494924,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 3.6% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.1834061612097417
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -5.549949657920275
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -3.962712003600332
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 7.723248380813662
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 56.708739,
      "low_52": 40.94563,
      "position_52": 37.13968481725273,
      "drawdown": -17.47303885561624
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 25.512285935574887,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.316424637527988,
      "active_drawdown": -56.878137605053915
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "price": 46.599998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.695244207413452,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 52.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 12.446361049200048,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "price": 46.599998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -8.695244207413452,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 48.559337,
      "fair_value": 50.782704,
      "trend_gap": -3.623068412157274,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.8426406754551765
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 52.400002,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 12.446361049200048,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 46.799999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.687028218052362,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -10.687028218052362,
      "weeks": 14,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "3.6% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-6.9",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-10.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.7",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+3.3",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 23
    },
    "volume_ratio": 96.74691015578817,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 82,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 81,
          "positive_rate": 45.7,
          "median_return": -0.29,
          "bar_width": 1.45,
          "average_return": 0.42,
          "best_return": 15.94,
          "worst_return": -15.11
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 77,
          "positive_rate": 51.9,
          "median_return": 0.74,
          "bar_width": 3.7,
          "average_return": 1.65,
          "best_return": 23.45,
          "worst_return": -14.22
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 71,
          "positive_rate": 42.3,
          "median_return": -3.23,
          "bar_width": 16.15,
          "average_return": -1.28,
          "best_return": 41.59,
          "worst_return": -20.32
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 52.40, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 46.60; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 29,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 157,
          "positive_rate": 43.9,
          "median_return": -0.71,
          "average_return": 0.02,
          "median_excess_return": -1.74,
          "excess_observations": 157,
          "p10": -8.86,
          "p90": 9.74
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 88,
          "positive_rate": 48.9,
          "median_return": -0.16,
          "average_return": 0.99,
          "median_excess_return": -3.59,
          "excess_observations": 88,
          "p10": -14.39,
          "p90": 21.58
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 73,
          "positive_rate": 56.2,
          "median_return": 4.17,
          "average_return": 1.99,
          "median_excess_return": -1.3,
          "excess_observations": 73,
          "p10": -28.44,
          "p90": 27.54
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^SSMI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.42735257323403003,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 37% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 96,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2025-10-03",
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      "2025-11-07",
      "2025-11-14",
      "2025-11-21",
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