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"value": 2.0076120794324557 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.9788325058000664 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.9104602519257368 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.7398855502953516 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.5086592833881587 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2851953751702918 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.9350856103497349 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.6153290708080315 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.5645710751724184 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6043826153713633 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8082704111543411 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8301349087983103 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.7718198810376227 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.28; Wave 2 19.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.2753, "confirmation": 19.5492, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.80; Wave B 19.55.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.53; C length 0.41.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.27\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 19.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.85556844547566, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 19.1362, "confirmation": 19.5492, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.23; Wave 2 17.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 18.20; Wave 3 19.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 18.20; Wave 4 18.28.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.97, 2.56, 0.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 19.80; Wave 5 19.14.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.65\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 14.2299, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.690105593627564, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 18.2, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.899704144090954, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 17.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.27472527472528, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 19.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.85556844547566, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.710729782821607, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 18.2753, "confirmation": 19.1362, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.28; Wave 2 19.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.2753, "confirmation": 19.5492, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.23; Wave 2 17.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 18.20; Wave 3 19.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 18.20; Wave 4 18.28.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.97, 2.56, 0.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 19.80; Wave 5 19.14.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.65\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-05-16", "price": 14.2299, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.690105593627564, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 18.2, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.899704144090954, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 17.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.27472527472528, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 19.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.85556844547566, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.710729782821607, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 18.2753, "confirmation": 19.1362, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 69, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.364401566287044, "fair_value_gap": 13.508429644846172, "market_activity": 24.294814, "market_dynamics": -0.57518, "relative_strength": -1.245364, "roc30": 12.456072305866027, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 3.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.788297872340415 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.3343645269399371 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.464028022603982 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 29.930744160782176 } ], "range": { "high_52": 22.0, "low_52": 14.67, "position_52": 60.93042291950885, "drawdown": -13.017272727272733 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.832997735545765, "average_weekly_range": 3.502055157591915, "active_drawdown": -4.0097385757433335 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.2753, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.705632515365309, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 18.513337, "fair_value": 16.858836, "trend_gap": 3.364401566287044, "fair_value_gap": 13.508429644846172 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 19.5492, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.970610605571441, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.1362, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -2.112618419168049, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+24.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 115, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 1049.204177808719, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 16, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 73.3, "median_return": 5.39, "bar_width": 26.95, "average_return": 4.0, "best_return": 8.5, "worst_return": -1.48 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 6.12, "bar_width": 30.6, "average_return": 6.62, "best_return": 16.08, "worst_return": 1.24 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 15.81, "bar_width": 79.05, "average_return": 15.11, "best_return": 20.02, "worst_return": 10.28 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.55, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 18.28; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.44, "average_return": -0.53, "median_excess_return": -1.26, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -6.98, "p90": 6.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 56, "positive_rate": 60.7, "median_return": 3.61, "average_return": 1.06, "median_excess_return": -0.39, "excess_observations": 56, "p10": -11.81, "p90": 12.25 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 3.64, "average_return": 4.72, "median_excess_return": -3.8, "excess_observations": 42, "p10": -19.24, "p90": 27.86 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.498803315182729, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 61% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", 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