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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 85,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 29.20; Wave 2 26.48.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 23.40; Wave 3 20.30.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.40; Wave 4 22.16.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.07\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 248,
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "price": 29.200001,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 8.95523167743402,
          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 260,
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "price": 23.4,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -19.86301644304739,
          "weeks": 12,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 266,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 26.48,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 269,
          "date": "2026-08-28",
          "price": 20.299999,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 22.16,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 23.4,
      "confirmation": 20.299999,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 46
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 26.48; Wave 2 22.16.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 26.48,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 20.299999,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 22.16,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 26.48,
        "confirmation": 20.299999,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 7
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 85,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 29.20; Wave 2 26.48.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 23.40; Wave 3 20.30.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.40; Wave 4 22.16.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.07\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 29.200001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 8.95523167743402,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 260,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 23.4,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -19.86301644304739,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 26.48,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 20.299999,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 22.16,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 23.4,
        "confirmation": 20.299999,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 46
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 11.242450987016593,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 75,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 39.10; Wave 2 26.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 23.40; Wave 3 20.30.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.40; Wave 4 22.16.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.39\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 212,
              "date": "2025-07-25",
              "price": 39.099998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 60.41725062378107,
              "weeks": 21,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 23.4,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -40.15344962421737,
              "weeks": 48,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 26.48,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 20.299999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 22.16,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 23.4,
          "confirmation": 20.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 7.02653186688537,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 29.20; Wave 2 26.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 23.40; Wave 3 20.30.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.40; Wave 4 22.16.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.07\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 29.200001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.95523167743402,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 23.4,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.86301644304739,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 26.48,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 20.299999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 22.16,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 23.4,
          "confirmation": 20.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 46
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.918572306819759,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 29.20; Wave 2 26.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 23.40; Wave 3 20.30.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.40; Wave 4 22.16.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.07\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 29.200001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.95523167743402,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 23.4,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.86301644304739,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 26.48,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 20.299999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 22.16,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 23.4,
          "confirmation": 20.299999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 46
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 75,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 29.200001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.95523167743402,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 23.4,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.86301644304739,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 26.48,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 20.299999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 22.16,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "4"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -10.78823106749933,
      "fair_value_gap": -16.28001268040458,
      "market_activity": -41.955927,
      "market_dynamics": -0.408498,
      "relative_strength": -13.564142,
      "roc30": -20.000002888086538,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 10.8% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 6.6409958305584365
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -13.774322421232592
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -23.586206896551722
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -35.768115942028984
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 34.560001,
      "low_52": 20.139999,
      "position_52": 14.008326767222366,
      "drawdown": -35.879631484964364
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 35.1532614149854,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.174610593602062,
      "active_drawdown": -43.32480528515627
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 20.299999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 26.48,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 26.48,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.16239316239317,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 24.839772,
      "fair_value": 26.469187,
      "trend_gap": -10.78823106749933,
      "fair_value_gap": -16.28001268040458
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 20.299999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.338372356495473,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 22.16,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 9.162566953821035,
      "weeks": 6,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "10.8% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-13.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-42.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.4",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-20.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 2,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 36
    },
    "volume_ratio": 162.03382424935063,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 55,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 54,
          "positive_rate": 48.1,
          "median_return": -1.25,
          "bar_width": 6.25,
          "average_return": -0.59,
          "best_return": 22.48,
          "worst_return": -23.04
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 46,
          "positive_rate": 37.0,
          "median_return": -3.43,
          "bar_width": 17.150000000000002,
          "average_return": 1.08,
          "best_return": 47.43,
          "worst_return": -18.64
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 33,
          "positive_rate": 57.6,
          "median_return": 6.13,
          "bar_width": 30.65,
          "average_return": 5.3,
          "best_return": 54.13,
          "worst_return": -30.1
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 20.30, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 23.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 23,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 43,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 35,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 582,
          "positive_rate": 49.0,
          "median_return": -0.26,
          "average_return": 1.82,
          "median_excess_return": 0.02,
          "excess_observations": 582,
          "p10": -14.87,
          "p90": 19.0
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 229,
          "positive_rate": 50.2,
          "median_return": 0.31,
          "average_return": 6.13,
          "median_excess_return": 1.25,
          "excess_observations": 229,
          "p10": -21.84,
          "p90": 40.75
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 132,
          "positive_rate": 54.5,
          "median_return": 3.59,
          "average_return": 14.58,
          "median_excess_return": 3.78,
          "excess_observations": 132,
          "p10": -26.45,
          "p90": 65.78
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^HSI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
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      "invalidation_distance": 5.595667870036094,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 6,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 10.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 14% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
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      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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