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"2026-01-30", "value": -2.3553635242776094 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -2.3942748254547817 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -2.4218609539093263 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -2.5046530326808987 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.5743449070263145 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.568494062002765 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -2.1228860551659543 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.725915895517576 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.4890582740220246 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.050511531108199 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.5592322692010304 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.328052802804544 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.17791729781179733 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.03721986605615896 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.2157271198791358 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.326538173705751 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.2594873497241879 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.10673892169372717 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.2402257129263597 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.31771843026629676 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.10920467876154338 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.13899966964559915 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.2817026393692394 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.07633712671836346 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.22224677130755374 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.18562062882789088 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.10141451331601137 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.028582839357144174 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.80; Wave B 68.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.70; C length 3.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.46\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 67.800003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.435923795347037, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 71.400002, "confirmation": 68.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74.50; Wave 2 71.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 74.5, "confirmation": 68.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 48.63; Wave 2 62.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 71.20; Wave 3 75.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 71.20; Wave 4 71.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.61\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 119, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 48.628521, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.675670429510788, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 71.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.416126865137436, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 62.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.92134464556227, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 75.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.096769354838703, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.6803106610426894, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 62.0, "confirmation": 75.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 12.18149994903463, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 48.63; Wave 2 62.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 71.20; Wave 3 75.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 71.20; Wave 4 71.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.61\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 119, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 48.628521, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.675670429510788, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 71.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 46.416126865137436, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 62.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.92134464556227, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 75.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.096769354838703, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.6803106610426894, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 62.0, "confirmation": 75.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.613437468146643, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.80; Wave B 68.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.70; C length 3.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.46\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 67.800003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.435923795347037, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 71.400002, "confirmation": 68.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.329406227702649, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 67.80; Wave B 68.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.70; C length 3.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.46\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 67.800003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.435923795347037, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 71.400002, "confirmation": 68.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 67.800003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.435923795347037, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 12.15590424242262, "fair_value_gap": -0.5812183334132158, "market_activity": 53.297816, "market_dynamics": 0.007461, "relative_strength": -26.95983, "roc30": 24.878994181933294, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 12.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.161071140939597 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 15.161293548387098 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 30.25013278581092 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -17.742738694379142 } ], "range": { "high_52": 89.228165, "low_52": 45.19014, "position_52": 59.516433809191035, "drawdown": -19.980420980303702 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 44.09213185625245, "average_weekly_range": 8.338245630462131, "active_drawdown": -26.857455131019556 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 138, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 74.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.882001037669564, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 63.661385, "fair_value": 71.817418, "trend_gap": 12.15590424242262, "fair_value_gap": -0.5812183334132158 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 68.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.322143624161068, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 142, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 71.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 4.538797750858073, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "12.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-27.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+53.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+24.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 84, "history_score": 55, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 143, "confirmed_pivots": 20 }, "volume_ratio": 69.71240712992272, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 26, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 48.0, "median_return": -0.15, "bar_width": 0.75, "average_return": -0.14, "best_return": 30.0, "worst_return": -20.53 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 31.6, "median_return": -4.63, "bar_width": 23.15, "average_return": -4.16, "best_return": 7.92, "worst_return": -17.33 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 36.8, "median_return": -8.82, "bar_width": 44.1, "average_return": -12.34, "best_return": 14.82, "worst_return": -43.6 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 68.30, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 71.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 885, "positive_rate": 59.7, "median_return": 2.7, "average_return": 5.32, "median_excess_return": 0.97, "excess_observations": 885, "p10": -10.59, "p90": 23.74 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 302, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 8.73, "average_return": 19.68, "median_excess_return": 4.94, "excess_observations": 302, "p10": -13.7, "p90": 60.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 163, "positive_rate": 71.8, "median_return": 16.39, "average_return": 39.53, "median_excess_return": 7.78, "excess_observations": 163, "p10": -13.83, "p90": 133.04 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 41, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 10, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "Price is 12.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 60% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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