{ "ticker": { "symbol": "9477", "name": "Ping An Of China Trust - Ping An East-west Select Etf", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 2.244, "latest_open": 2.22, "latest_high": 2.248, "latest_low": 2.22, "bar_count": 44, "analysis_bar_count": 44, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 2, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 16.3946, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 6, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 2.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -87.25190001585888, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 20, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 2.27, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.612440191387567, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 2.112, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.960352422907485, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "rising", "trend_bias": "bullish", "oscillator": 0.6282723130570048, "slope": 3.992896944476654, "dominant_period_weeks": 15, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 6, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 2, "series": [ { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -5.450337944780899 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -10.7668689371399 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -16.56025771009699 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -16.482247431095526 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -11.384183778323624 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -6.774853373767713 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.6888490038471993 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.67848761687061 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.8725842926035541 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.34015202582447845 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.439142584955504 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.2689432213485445 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.658214765393974 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.5556857364535093 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.3946818592521755 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.6357308405885707 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.45407687675121255 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.5266965473791013 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -2.147573706069002 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -3.025238059983836 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -3.3646246314196495 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -3.1285097212138617 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.740521914877874 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.633596212129393 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.6282723130570048 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "rising stack", "phase": "rising", "alignment_score": 88, "risk_score": 12, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 15, "nearest_crest_window": 8, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. 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Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.28; Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.995215311004793, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.28; Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.28; Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.995215311004793, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.28; Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2.28; Wave 2 2.24.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2.278, "confirmation": 2.082, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 2.1% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 5.154639175257747 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.4925373134328275 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.4466546112115743 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 16.3946, "low_52": 2.08, "position_52": 1.1456834281083657, "drawdown": -86.31256633281691 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 11.881878330881225, "average_weekly_range": 0.8224640187337121, "active_drawdown": -86.31256633281691 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 31, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 2.278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.859848484848482, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 2.198867, "fair_value": 2.503968, "trend_gap": 2.052557066889462, "fair_value_gap": -10.382241306598157 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 37, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 2.082, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.60403863037753, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 43, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 2.244, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 7.780979827089356, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 6, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 44, "history_score": 17, "indicator_coverage": 41, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 44, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": null, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 2.08, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 2.28; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 156, "positive_rate": 60.3, "median_return": 0.85, "average_return": 1.94, "median_excess_return": 0.29, "excess_observations": 156, "p10": -4.58, "p90": 9.66 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 84, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 5.53, "average_return": 6.57, "median_excess_return": 0.78, "excess_observations": 84, "p10": -7.48, "p90": 21.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 68, "positive_rate": 61.8, "median_return": 5.77, "average_return": 5.64, "median_excess_return": 1.09, "excess_observations": 68, "p10": -14.37, "p90": 29.09 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 1.5151515151515065, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 2, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 12, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 12/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2025-10-10", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-26", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-07" ], "close": [ 2.102, 2.09, 16.3946, 2.158, 2.138, 2.194, 2.09, 2.14, 2.162, 2.146, 2.126, 2.15, 2.15, 2.168, 2.182, 2.182, 2.218, 2.212, 2.244, 2.248, 2.27, 2.22, 2.186, 2.148, 2.116, 2.112, 2.186, 2.222, 2.23, 2.224, 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