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"value": 1.3628952453112457 }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "value": 1.4513211819171707 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 1.4626354214577217 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 1.4884464240587179 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 1.4052208300817166 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 1.1887291209178792 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 0.7921556941693185 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 0.15573742321981776 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": -0.30128225448872503 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": -0.15954528980239252 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": -0.33956806295176867 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": -0.6177050513840746 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": -0.8736430549998294 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -1.0516376332981205 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": -1.0712049467619043 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": -0.9619728118702928 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": -0.8481243398104517 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": -0.58666881196093 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": -0.4504405138286136 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": -0.34575237275228654 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": -0.16960559383714927 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": -0.12285256965556612 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": -0.11697168518919515 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": -0.02350156211116705 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": -0.0026580184156984876 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": -0.021936277726054443 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.05412959552922428 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 0.12905361041844216 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 0.17864962147606497 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 0.22185998456310588 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 0.24017231360253016 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 0.2601448158823007 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 0.26855180485178515 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 0.2548271644142916 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.33151317646828 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 0.4342103498775502 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.4762027915376803 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.5413396040168135 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.6145633188310378 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.6101539179537913 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.7314282734404416 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.8915823720686663 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.7436125037934804 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.6185692775248839 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.3414858884806714 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.252262786835658 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.23766053318150268 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.15277450991558356 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.07139786656590542 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.03415013656315476 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -0.020851225048621497 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.12666985937082093 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.3052813867415907 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.4619185082595102 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.40191589392563193 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.08710035684092138 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.14747312730332668 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -0.15750301912433828 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.08978474615818592 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.09734117167413482 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.18574105553176715 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.5066075417512081 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.0270538079693352 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.3095340986083008 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.370606205276744 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.1204649026611702 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.9103103387968183 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.8077673376204597 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.5007763308045315 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.08237429024208187 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.371094213720912 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.9252198534487363 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2229065824227616 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.3946397605487688 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.819096027263268 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.968442049770039 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.0459282213593957 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.0597402582659976 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.7339047808672015 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.4687914423557533 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.97; Wave 2 64.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.970001, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 56.91; Wave B 64.09.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.06; C length 0.59.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.05\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 132, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 56.91, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.479877675837093, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 64.68, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.97; Wave 2 64.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.970001, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.191349212128488, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.97; Wave 2 64.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.970001, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.119593257580305, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.97; Wave 2 64.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.970001, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.583715280306213, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.97; Wave 2 64.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.970001, "confirmation": 64.089996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 71, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.9615684337577683, "fair_value_gap": 7.055961070559619, "market_activity": 27.179363, "market_dynamics": 0.532465, "relative_strength": -0.624194, "roc30": 4.474236795348102, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 2.0% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.573619129147518 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.406777975677525 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.5440665150298202 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 4.087545929957295 } ], "range": { "high_52": 70.279999, "low_52": 55.939999, "position_52": 60.94840306834034, "drawdown": -7.968126180536793 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 21.210001366204757, "average_weekly_range": 3.209378966884688, "active_drawdown": -10.204080386006941 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.970001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.948516956598137, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 63.435666, "fair_value": 60.417, "trend_gap": 1.9615684337577683, "fair_value_gap": 7.055961070559619 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.089996, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.403608569335303, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 149, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 64.68, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 0.9205867324441829, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+27.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 58, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 150, "confirmed_pivots": 16 }, "volume_ratio": 216.52593486127864, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 35.3, "median_return": -1.33, "bar_width": 6.65, "average_return": -3.55, "best_return": 4.02, "worst_return": -16.65 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 23.5, "median_return": -3.7, "bar_width": 18.5, "average_return": -5.78, "best_return": 8.37, "worst_return": -20.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -5.4, "bar_width": 27.0, "average_return": -3.78, "best_return": 10.03, "worst_return": -14.12 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 64.09, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 69.97; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.178727581941851, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 61% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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