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"2025-02-21", "value": -0.3827226199608941 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": -0.501549604584678 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": -0.6439251704002605 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": -0.8503876283551826 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": -1.017315776870667 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": -1.1998224322533029 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": -1.4612556598137914 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": -1.7488530106572926 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -1.9295067372815975 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": -2.0246592023555605 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": -1.9539230731589121 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": -1.8475388961981114 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": -1.44594727698146 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": -1.0981719419667826 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": -0.9101660909532582 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": -0.7682465412060941 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": -0.5347079908751211 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": -0.21810838432032145 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 0.09534402740864295 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 0.14773504606060175 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 0.20632066000102803 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.10609357386068755 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 0.07078552011528219 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 0.1627658714786226 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 0.20533701038217533 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 0.16355533448324255 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 0.7637454340958727 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 1.0028364208801164 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 1.0242062166625105 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.944168731832572 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 0.7642686397426373 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.602468753462838 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.5402353922683413 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.45132587984949457 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.4141755986232396 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.37489215905049533 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.23752929903184525 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.09639323077301594 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.04596784650559846 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.2139137528860017 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.13852588829226603 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.007179107507373245 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.06324556493792459 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.06392467863284673 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.006359392986924728 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.09925432126272031 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.11311324129216804 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.17039148329303072 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.12013770580944201 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.031103045075536906 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.04486272762791581 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.18239795609633766 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.3177200931992814 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.5021054087171835 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.82236618699435 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.9909772830585911 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.1172533351507477 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.200466589332142 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.103480331078456 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.7671349719462202 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.8018104087692743 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.9346782138357926 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.0477852762312432 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.1477742216141968 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.8779340249315055 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.8041277673939151 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.40272627372751557 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.3039243668065794 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.28806793428560334 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.5814384698666037 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.7131996627743838 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8498715455875581 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.1042958966988954 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.249952820926415 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.3873949009759154 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.3983161225489018 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.3603773823202183 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 75.10; Wave 2 59.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.29; Wave 3 48.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.45\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-08-22", "price": 75.097488, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.60030735946094, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 50.291973, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.031084874636555, "weeks": 31, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.762089528680853, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 48.650002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 59.727798, "confirmation": 48.650002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 62, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 75.10; Wave B 59.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 24.81; C length 11.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.45\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-08-22", "price": 75.097488, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.60030735946094, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 50.291973, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.031084874636555, "weeks": 31, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.762089528680853, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 48.650002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 48.650002, "confirmation": 59.727798, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 13.782174872298484, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 75.10; Wave 2 59.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 50.29; Wave 3 48.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.45\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-08-22", "price": 75.097488, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.60030735946094, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 50.291973, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.031084874636555, "weeks": 31, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.762089528680853, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 48.650002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 59.727798, "confirmation": 48.650002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.613859295186552, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.029701506630587, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-08-22", "price": 75.097488, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 69.60030735946094, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 50.291973, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.031084874636555, "weeks": 31, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.762089528680853, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 48.650002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -9.929265872448324, "fair_value_gap": -15.567471176445315, "market_activity": -22.656769, "market_dynamics": -0.610072, "relative_strength": -42.479906, "roc30": -21.61119363105879, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 9.9% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.505009919638881 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -3.8229610305481008 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -18.41425833616745 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -20.992010952829162 } ], "range": { "high_52": 78.307617, "low_52": 45.0, "position_52": 10.958460342569694, "drawdown": -37.873218642319294 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 34.45428251117498, "average_weekly_range": 7.678524256883824, "active_drawdown": -39.94131804074342 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 81, "date": "2025-04-25", "price": 44.279099, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.476126805790905, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.07692743374504, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.07692743374504, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 54.013107, "fair_value": 57.619975, "trend_gap": -9.929265872448324, "fair_value_gap": -15.567471176445315 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 138, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 59.727798, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.07692743374504, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 148, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 48.650002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -18.547136125795227, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "9.9% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-42.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-22.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-21.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 57, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 149, "confirmed_pivots": 19 }, "volume_ratio": 47.225545954515226, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 43, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 57.1, "median_return": 3.17, "bar_width": 15.85, "average_return": 1.04, "best_return": 23.03, "worst_return": -22.98 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 38, "positive_rate": 52.6, "median_return": 0.47, "bar_width": 2.3499999999999996, "average_return": 5.92, "best_return": 46.01, "worst_return": -20.41 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 76.0, "median_return": 18.79, "bar_width": 93.94999999999999, "average_return": 15.24, "best_return": 50.13, "worst_return": -21.36 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 48.65, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 59.73; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 411, "positive_rate": 56.7, "median_return": 1.31, "average_return": 1.92, "median_excess_return": -0.46, "excess_observations": 411, "p10": -9.13, "p90": 14.42 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 176, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 4.27, "average_return": 9.34, "median_excess_return": -1.87, "excess_observations": 176, "p10": -17.32, "p90": 38.68 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 108, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 6.7, "average_return": 17.33, "median_excess_return": 1.41, "excess_observations": 108, "p10": -20.02, "p90": 66.78 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 22.770391664115447, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 27, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9.9% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 11% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", 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