{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EUEE", "name": "iShares Europe Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 7.924, "latest_open": 7.791, "latest_high": 7.924, "latest_low": 7.781, "bar_count": 105, "analysis_bar_count": 105, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 19, "date": "2024-12-20", "price": 5.4192, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 25, "date": "2025-01-31", "price": 5.1339, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.264614703277243, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true 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0.6842094619186201 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.6841355605342421 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.7125751855527296 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.6398487100192768 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.7495748650000097 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.8442226961034183 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8048419240241137 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.8550782097655285 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8540164472998137 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.7922584381365991 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8885739399449505 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8174971712088086 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7267542015259905 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6648766438472631 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7159176868716535 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8668971145372393 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.81; Wave 2 6.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.58; Wave 3 7.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.7433, "confirmation": 7.924, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.81; Wave B 6.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.77; C length 1.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.67\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.924, "confirmation": 6.7433, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 32 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.81; Wave 2 6.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.58; Wave 3 7.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.7433, "confirmation": 7.924, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 34 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.81; Wave 2 6.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.58; Wave 3 7.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.7433, "confirmation": 7.924, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.81; Wave 2 6.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.58; Wave 3 7.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.7433, "confirmation": 7.924, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.74; Wave 2 7.25.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.55; Wave 3 7.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 37% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 7.555, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.037133154390286, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 7.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.9708802117802757, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.221226740179194, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 7.255, "confirmation": 7.924, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.8072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.991617174424979, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.5758, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.4552968728475, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.235369591897972, "fair_value_gap": 23.9863521131036, "market_activity": 38.050322, "market_dynamics": 0.631634, "relative_strength": -0.105735, "roc30": 10.654936461388086, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 7.2% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.263157894736852 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.167974032999733 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.279471447506868 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 28.532035685320363 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7.924, "low_52": 5.8072, "position_52": 100.0, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 17.40202309011672, "average_weekly_range": 1.6538820477517815, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 7.389353, "fair_value": 6.391026, "trend_gap": 7.235369591897972, "fair_value_gap": 23.9863521131036 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 84, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 6.7433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.988938461944619, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.924, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.50923138522683, "weeks": 20, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+38.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 40, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 105, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 47.85919976890371, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 28, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 70.4, "median_return": 2.19, "bar_width": 10.95, "average_return": 0.73, "best_return": 6.79, "worst_return": -10.12 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 76.2, "median_return": 1.93, "bar_width": 9.65, "average_return": 3.13, "best_return": 14.92, "worst_return": -3.28 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 8.65, "bar_width": 43.25, "average_return": 8.69, "best_return": 14.92, "worst_return": 3.99 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 7.92, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.74; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 260, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.11, "average_return": -0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 260, "p10": -14.22, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.53, "average_return": -1.35, "median_excess_return": -0.84, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -31.75, "p90": 15.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 43.9, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -5.25, "median_excess_return": -4.94, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -61.94, "p90": 24.04 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 14.900302877334688, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 10, "explanation": "Price is 7.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", 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