{ "ticker": { "symbol": "6987", "name": "INA ENERGY", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 17.299999, "latest_open": 17.1, "latest_high": 17.299999, "latest_low": 16.700001, "bar_count": 101, "analysis_bar_count": 101, "reversal_percent": 7.3288751253681745, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 30, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 38.491226, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 41, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 31.441551, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.31501807710671, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 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"2025-09-19", "value": -1.440063540358717 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": -1.3263893148127406 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": -1.2248065998787876 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": -1.1462853806943973 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": -1.1061506131291943 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": -1.1761910999874206 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -1.5216602432161026 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -1.6857695375611215 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -1.7944811282423634 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -1.9134554368056962 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -1.9781053901258652 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -2.0450182241628383 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -2.0074461279891502 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -1.9335181297338337 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -1.8516759884223377 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.5687844766057564 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -1.461171610356469 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -1.3479467183313354 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -1.010325330838446 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.9001031261378613 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.9338524191741151 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -1.023971352256521 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.8101756058266277 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.8221915358116317 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.8597111626763686 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.8929321450017549 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.8913728203087734 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.9202613127443207 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.9322333509862943 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.9253824171804311 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.7650926656287231 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.7037885977373903 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.704272348297267 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.7040012580252564 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.7018345905938406 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.6374514709515504 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.5926272303120335 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.5805416702110049 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.5753536870253193 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.5609617868949832 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.5430911581433742 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.5568693131022426 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.5022160977182641 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.4493589978316094 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.5418250198453092 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.7634897203030484 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.8620928223453933 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.82; Wave B 21.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.58; C length 4.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 17.299999, "confirmation": 21.48299, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.82; Wave 2 21.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 19.24; Wave 3 17.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 87% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.62\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 21.48299, "confirmation": 17.299999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.82; Wave B 21.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.58; C length 4.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 17.299999, "confirmation": 21.48299, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.72620020058908, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.57; Wave 2 21.82.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 19.53; Wave 3 17.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.24\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 45, "date": "2025-07-18", "price": 38.573906, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.684488433792595, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 19.525652, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -49.381190486646595, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.704664229839878, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 21.817171, "confirmation": 17.299999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.3288751253681745, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.82; Wave B 21.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.58; C length 4.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 17.299999, "confirmation": 21.48299, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.130212587757722, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.82; Wave B 21.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.58; C length 4.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 17.299999, "confirmation": 21.48299, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 53, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 21.817171, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.735941007245223, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 19.239212, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.816192851034627, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -10.798428361027767, "fair_value_gap": -44.80992329121224, "market_activity": -19.710789, "market_dynamics": -0.177625, "relative_strength": -45.833213, "roc30": -11.398610402356864, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 10.8% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -10.362694837445328 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -9.405073557062325 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -12.889495383923459 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -51.68270842733212 } ], "range": { "high_52": 36.043683, "low_52": 16.700001, "position_52": 3.101777624342663, "drawdown": -52.00268796060603 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 25.540164629881545, "average_weekly_range": 5.11584223448361, "active_drawdown": -65.33878822032439 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 19.394276, "fair_value": 31.346213, "trend_gap": -10.798428361027767, "fair_value_gap": -44.80992329121224 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 76, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.48299, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.662525471417451, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 17.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -19.471176963728052, "weeks": 24, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "10.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-45.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-19.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 6, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 78, "history_score": 39, "indicator_coverage": 99, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 101, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 46.46688368856445, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 18, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 22.2, "median_return": -1.85, "bar_width": 9.25, "average_return": -2.45, "best_return": 11.19, "worst_return": -16.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 20.0, "median_return": -2.43, "bar_width": 12.15, "average_return": -4.92, "best_return": 5.63, "worst_return": -17.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -7.3, "bar_width": 36.5, "average_return": -9.1, "best_return": -1.16, "worst_return": -20.32 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 21.48, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 17.30; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 15, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 40, "rising_cycle_count": 5, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 278, "positive_rate": 45.3, "median_return": -0.21, "average_return": -0.17, "median_excess_return": -3.12, "excess_observations": 278, "p10": -9.75, "p90": 7.58 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 98, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.06, "average_return": -1.47, "median_excess_return": -10.42, "excess_observations": 98, "p10": -15.18, "p90": 9.71 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 47.4, "median_return": -0.32, "average_return": -0.67, "median_excess_return": -20.31, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -22.53, "p90": 15.61 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 22, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 10.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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