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Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 249.964002, "confirmation": 222.3, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 217.50; Wave B 222.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 32.46; C length 2.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.08\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 264, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 217.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.92452830188679, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 225.0, "confirmation": 222.3, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 265.00; Wave 2 225.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 257, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 265.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.83408071748879, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 263, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 217.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.92452830188679, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.4482758620689653, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 265.0, "confirmation": 217.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 16.95106352769866, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 265.00; Wave 2 225.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 257, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 265.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.83408071748879, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 263, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 217.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.92452830188679, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.4482758620689653, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 265.0, "confirmation": 217.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 17.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.594414704811662, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 249.96; Wave 2 225.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 249.964002, "confirmation": 222.3, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.416090293368163, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 249.96; Wave 2 225.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 249.964002, "confirmation": 222.3, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -5.33958213256593, "fair_value_gap": 7.089818615406037, "market_activity": -18.955421, "market_dynamics": 0.421965, "relative_strength": -14.660499, "roc30": -18.154652073934567, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 5.3% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.651162790697675 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.1739130434782608 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -1.283027561971748 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -27.39526060462807 } ], "range": { "high_52": 339.887149, "low_52": 205.931633, "position_52": 14.234850172201936, "drawdown": -33.80155717508461 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 36.80398553954563, "average_weekly_range": 5.846130638491493, "active_drawdown": -60.46175149443245 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 249.964002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.92597793103448, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 237.691746, "fair_value": 210.104007, "trend_gap": -5.33958213256593, "fair_value_gap": 7.089818615406037 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 222.3, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.067194387454231, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 225.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 1.21457489878542, "weeks": 8, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "5.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-14.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-19.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 24 }, "volume_ratio": 377.5828820019436, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 68, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 68, "positive_rate": 29.4, "median_return": -3.04, "bar_width": 15.2, "average_return": -2.27, "best_return": 27.27, "worst_return": -33.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 64, "positive_rate": 25.0, "median_return": -9.31, "bar_width": 46.550000000000004, "average_return": -8.69, "best_return": 18.64, "worst_return": -41.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -16.24, "bar_width": 81.19999999999999, "average_return": -12.8, "best_return": 21.32, "worst_return": -44.53 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close below 222.30, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 249.96; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 11, "rising_cycle_percent": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 630, "positive_rate": 49.5, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 1.04, "median_excess_return": -0.6, "excess_observations": 630, "p10": -12.32, "p90": 15.85 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 239, "positive_rate": 52.3, "median_return": 0.46, "average_return": 4.29, "median_excess_return": -1.91, "excess_observations": 239, "p10": -20.51, "p90": 29.24 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 142, "positive_rate": 49.3, "median_return": -0.69, "average_return": 4.84, "median_excess_return": -4.14, "excess_observations": 142, "p10": -26.98, "p90": 39.45 } ], "benchmark": "^FTSE", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 11.095111999999997, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 14% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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