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"2026-01-30", "value": 2.037037504753405 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.994796851005748 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.8035010217740994 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.7218166509978765 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.6837850019259224 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.742656810481056 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.8687999382244076 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.9584119657075498 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 1.9638761406645309 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 1.952183645243365 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.8985096020186143 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.8440032026321163 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.7891818625032272 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.6401162090701842 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.4550590434192516 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3962881498346404 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.3771833644304246 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.3637600385048438 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.3660011830829737 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.3573354721018114 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3413324338823012 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.3003838999836506 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.2176145743956233 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.1747421049991043 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1741290711616836 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.224303204755708 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "all", "title": "Mixed wave-cycle structure", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 28, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.6956811988070535, "fair_value_gap": 11.55440669094987, "market_activity": 42.931361, "market_dynamics": 0.3785, "relative_strength": -12.050946, "roc30": 6.308892485520491, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as mixed wave-cycle structure. Price is 3.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.742168371774428 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.882815047056886 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 4.7207059325142655 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 14.850284432124354 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1108.0, "low_52": 960.936876, "position_52": 99.3200198847945, "drawdown": -0.09025270758122744 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 7.180336044549462, "average_weekly_range": 0.8457763319138664, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 1067.546871, "fair_value": 992.340897, "trend_gap": 3.6956811988070535, "fair_value_gap": 11.55440669094987 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-02-02", "price": 913.619873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1107.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.16636609107561, "weeks": 129, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 21.16636609107561, "weeks": 129, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-12.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+42.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 66, "history_score": 50, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 130, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 64.14945235416457, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 43, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 76.2, "median_return": 1.08, "bar_width": 5.4, "average_return": 1.07, "best_return": 4.63, "worst_return": -2.99 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 3.08, "bar_width": 15.4, "average_return": 3.13, "best_return": 6.95, "worst_return": 0.08 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 4.79, "bar_width": 23.95, "average_return": 6.01, "best_return": 10.41, "worst_return": 3.43 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 867, "positive_rate": 61.1, "median_return": 1.35, "average_return": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.04, "excess_observations": 867, "p10": -5.5, "p90": 6.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 311, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.43, "average_return": 3.03, "median_excess_return": 0.27, "excess_observations": 311, "p10": -7.3, "p90": 17.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 170, "positive_rate": 59.4, "median_return": 2.68, "average_return": 5.91, "median_excess_return": 0.84, "excess_observations": 170, "p10": -9.9, "p90": 32.97 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 34, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 97, "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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