{ "ticker": { "symbol": "CSEX", "name": "Tradr 2X Long CLS Daily ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 14.49, "latest_open": 12.95, "latest_high": 18.39, "latest_low": 11.32, "bar_count": 38, "analysis_bar_count": 38, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 20.85, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 1, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 16.86, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.136690647482023, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 2, "date": "2025-11-28", "price": 24.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 48.16132858837486, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 11, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 14.77, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.87269815852682, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 12, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 17.27, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.926201760324982, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 16, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 11.11, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.6687898089172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 24, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 27.59, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 148.33483348334835, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -47.48097136643712, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "falling", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": -23.720089800153563, "slope": -23.475061348003436, "dominant_period_weeks": 10, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 13, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0, "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -5.066445182724255 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -7.9745113074182665 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -2.3204789047160466 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 11.035522049710103 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 31.537859403388577 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 48.929024643684066 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 49.29204667965364 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 39.13692252378865 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 27.887326452965453 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 19.532150308478144 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 16.146602643982213 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 18.283625883326515 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 15.769336190884715 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 6.264766055217969 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.24502845215012625 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -6.6182807147693055 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -16.64929967922663 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -21.668201780370698 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -23.720089800153563 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "falling", "alignment_score": 25, "risk_score": 75, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 12, "nearest_crest_window": 7, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 8, "period_range": [ 4, 12 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": -1.6302819819955285, "slope": -0.3697354096399075, "amplitude": 12.357, "weeks_since_trough": 1, "weeks_since_crest": 3, "projected_trough_window": 7, "projected_crest_window": 5, "trough_window": { "start": 3, "midpoint": 7, "end": 11 }, "crest_window": { "start": 1, "midpoint": 5, "end": 9 }, "fld": { "value": 16.7917, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 5, "displacement": 4, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 11.3944, "state": "price above", "slope": -1.0257000000000003, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 16, 29, 36 ], "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -0.9779429576132276 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.7070737997111773 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.7554914736428565 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -1.363815098140723 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.9967824884651247 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -1.4469416401177622 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -1.2955642018535236 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -1.458769415426362 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.1878514004346843 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.0072157091343708 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.4147382445407348 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.8721973302896813 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.012422664823821594 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.9958591117253928 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 2.6652863705751306 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.88842879019171 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.96280959673057 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.076184052229043 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.8338886573549003 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.09542207594082441 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.16446535125850476 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.7214884504195016 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.5661724682119694 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.7125881604735409 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.362211307000559 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.6898284789731561 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.260546572355621 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.9268467364123212 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -2.144992656467484 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.6302819819955285 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 15, 25 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": -1.2088138380275104, "slope": -0.9414523511854991, "amplitude": 20.266, "weeks_since_trough": 8, "weeks_since_crest": 13, "projected_trough_window": 12, "projected_crest_window": 7, "trough_window": { "start": 7, "midpoint": 12, "end": 17 }, "crest_window": { "start": 2, "midpoint": 7, "end": 12 }, "fld": { "value": 18.68205, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 5, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [ 29 ], "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.9205341882829977 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.1675027112785351 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.9889973800378761 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.812006041971113 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.0155140299613685 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.5594144126736842 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1481425242803125 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.9367301943715417 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.9438470120581565 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8020722243265855 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.8459079778810822 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.6893240281610937 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.2190645668951829 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.18759472341834288 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.2673614868420113 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.7557871622806704 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.1405373526109717 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.2088138380275104 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 12.11, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 1, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -0.9779429576132276 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.7070737997111773 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.7554914736428565 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -1.363815098140723 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.9967824884651248 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -1.4469416401177622 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -1.2955642018535236 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -1.458769415426362 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.1878514004346843 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.0072157091343708 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.4147382445407348 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.9488789321158725 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.5572895788993273 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.697842017923036 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.6595129762527778 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.2425751412593518 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.394432256669049 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.7661222684958278 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.0224409775101475 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.6002069469992547 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.5005220667314919 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.19264795442815066 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.2810757994438615 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.12855915270723983 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.4134457826631138 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.7884882256402681 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.6646355210474553 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.2242109919333306 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.5423194741535766 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.3774010956147176 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.11; Wave 2 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 79% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 16, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 11.11, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.6687898089172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 24, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 27.59, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 148.33483348334835, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -47.48097136643712, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.11, "confirmation": 27.59, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.63; Wave 2 18.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 15.84; Wave 3 12.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 15.84; Wave 4 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 28, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 22.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.755356253114094, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 33, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 15.84, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.00441891294741, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 34, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.267676767676779, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.828729281767966, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.734824281150164, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 18.1, "confirmation": 12.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 83 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.10; Wave 2 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 34, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.828729281767966, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.734824281150164, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.1, "confirmation": 12.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.10; Wave 2 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 34, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.828729281767966, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.734824281150164, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.1, "confirmation": 12.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.11; Wave 2 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 79% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 16, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 11.11, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.6687898089172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 24, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 27.59, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 148.33483348334835, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -47.48097136643712, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.11, "confirmation": 27.59, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.63; Wave 2 18.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 15.84; Wave 3 12.52.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 15.84; Wave 4 14.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 28, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 22.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.755356253114094, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 33, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 15.84, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.00441891294741, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 34, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 18.1, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.267676767676779, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.52, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -30.828729281767966, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.734824281150164, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 18.1, "confirmation": 12.52, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 83 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 18.5% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -8.522727272727272 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -47.48097136643712 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -1.895734597156394 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 33.66, "low_52": 10.65, "position_52": 16.6883963494133, "drawdown": -56.951871657754005 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 112.84148533708853, "average_weekly_range": 33.69158527166107, "active_drawdown": -47.48097136643712 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 16, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 11.11, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.6687898089172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 24, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 27.59, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 148.33483348334835, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 16, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 11.11, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.6687898089172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 17.784653, "fair_value": 18.182095, "trend_gap": -18.525258828496675, "fair_value_gap": -20.30621333790193 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 24, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 27.59, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 148.33483348334835, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 37, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 14.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -47.48097136643712, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -47.48097136643712, "weeks": 13, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "18.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-19.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 4, "neutral": 1, "observed": 6, "agreement": 67, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 41, "history_score": 15, "indicator_coverage": 35, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 38, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 237.45224812779117, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 27.59, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.11; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 35, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 219, "positive_rate": 53.4, "median_return": 0.26, "average_return": 1.19, "median_excess_return": -0.69, "excess_observations": 219, "p10": -6.72, "p90": 9.02 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 55.6, "median_return": 0.98, "average_return": 1.85, "median_excess_return": -1.26, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 20.09 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 53, "positive_rate": 50.9, "median_return": 0.32, "average_return": 4.22, "median_excess_return": -6.15, "excess_observations": 53, "p10": -11.23, "p90": 18.43 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "bullish", "options_conviction": 44.15, "expected_move": 36.20254798, "invalidation_distance": 23.326432022084198, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move.", "Stored options pressure is bullish with 44/100 conviction." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 18.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2025-11-14", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-26", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-31" ], "close": [ 20.85, 16.86, 24.98, 21.94, 19.11, 17.2, 18.39, 18.05, 17.86, 19.03, 17.69, 14.77, 17.27, 14.3, 15.43, 13.98, 11.11, 12.18, 12.68, 13.44, 14.62, 20.51, 25.72, 27.57, 27.59, 21.97, 20.07, 20.94, 22.63, 20.15, 22.41, 19.98, 16.1496, 15.84, 18.1, 12.52, 12.54, 14.49 ], "trend": [ null, null, 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