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"value": 2.646100721370737 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.4324562826763376 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.10119204509426 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4685644906151434 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.052567580979765 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7703939268232083 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.7338142890055155 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.79; Wave 2 7.27.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 8.34; Wave 3 9.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 8.34; Wave 4 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.56, 2.66, 0.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 9.93; Wave 5 9.02.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.75\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 205, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.7868, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.339516318384594, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.343, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 74.29180245675606, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 7.2727, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.82871868632386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.023, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.93; Wave 2 9.02.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.932, "confirmation": 8.759, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.27; Wave B 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.66; C length 0.26.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.10\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 7.2727, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.82871868632386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 9.023, "confirmation": 8.759, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.425240553815804, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.890775346134878, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.79; Wave 2 7.27.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 8.34; Wave 3 9.93.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 8.34; Wave 4 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.56, 2.66, 0.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 9.93; Wave 5 9.02.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.75\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 205, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.7868, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.339516318384594, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.343, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 74.29180245675606, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 7.2727, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.82871868632386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.023, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.123542742294414, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 205, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 4.7868, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.339516318384594, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.343, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 74.29180245675606, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 7.2727, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.82871868632386, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.198006612923864, "fair_value_gap": 50.5153101744713, "market_activity": 18.004182, "market_dynamics": -0.678229, "relative_strength": 5.673916, "roc30": 24.85470747772181, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 6.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.928875638841565 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.6014680483592367 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 16.283265674334682 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 50.383333333333326 } ], "range": { "high_52": 10.006, "low_52": 5.8703, "position_52": 76.23135140363178, "drawdown": -9.824105536678 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 30.61612335534068, "average_weekly_range": 4.57272397651669, "active_drawdown": -9.152235199355625 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 9.932, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.565512120670455, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 8.496393, "fair_value": 5.994739, "trend_gap": 6.198006612923864, "fair_value_gap": 50.5153101744713 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.81031010873943, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.023, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3.014042698938227, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+18.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+24.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 81.0687898918078, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 76, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 75, "positive_rate": 62.7, "median_return": 1.76, "bar_width": 8.8, "average_return": 1.88, "best_return": 17.71, "worst_return": -11.81 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 70, "positive_rate": 75.7, "median_return": 4.2, "bar_width": 21.0, "average_return": 5.67, "best_return": 34.44, "worst_return": -9.18 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 63, "positive_rate": 76.2, "median_return": 7.08, "bar_width": 35.4, "average_return": 10.97, "best_return": 47.48, "worst_return": -11.94 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 8.76; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 44.2, "median_return": -0.72, "average_return": -2.44, "median_excess_return": 0.05, "excess_observations": 43, "p10": -18.68, "p90": 9.52 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 48.5, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -1.24, "median_excess_return": -0.93, "excess_observations": 33, "p10": -25.23, "p90": 14.48 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 59.1, "median_return": 1.6, "average_return": 3.01, "median_excess_return": 5.45, "excess_observations": 22, "p10": -49.61, "p90": 51.03 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.925856145406177, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 62, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 2, "explanation": "Price is 6.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 5, "explanation": "Price is 76% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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