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        "label": "10w",
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      "pattern": "impulse",
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      "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 90,
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          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 114.26; Wave 2 121.35.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 139.27; Wave 3 189.43.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 139.27; Wave 4 165.87.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
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          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.72\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 229,
          "date": "2025-11-21",
          "price": 114.26,
          "kind": "low",
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          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 241,
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          "price": 121.35,
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          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
          "index": 269,
          "date": "2026-08-28",
          "price": 189.43,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 28,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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          "price": 165.87,
          "kind": "low",
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          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
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      ],
      "invalidation": 139.27,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 38
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
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            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 121.35; Wave 2 165.87.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
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            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.",
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          }
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          {
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        ],
        "invalidation": 121.35,
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        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave5",
        "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 95,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 106.66; Wave 2 114.26.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 141.31; Wave 3 189.43.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 141.31; Wave 4 157.47.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Motive lengths: 34.65, 75.17, 8.40.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 3 189.43; Wave 5 165.87.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.17\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 17w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 196,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 106.66,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -33.923925164168004,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 212,
            "date": "2025-07-25",
            "price": 141.31,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 32.486405400337524,
            "weeks": 16,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 229,
            "date": "2025-11-21",
            "price": 114.26,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -19.142311230627694,
            "weeks": 17,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 189.43,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 65.78855242429546,
            "weeks": 40,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 273,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 157.47,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.8716676344824,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "4"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 165.87,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 5.334349399885697,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "5"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 157.47,
        "confirmation": 165.87,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 58
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 14.98250342693094,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 106.66; Wave 2 114.26.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 141.31; Wave 3 189.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 141.31; Wave 4 157.47.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 34.65, 75.17, 8.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 189.43; Wave 5 165.87.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.17\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 17w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 196,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 106.66,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -33.923925164168004,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 212,
              "date": "2025-07-25",
              "price": 141.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 32.486405400337524,
              "weeks": 16,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 229,
              "date": "2025-11-21",
              "price": 114.26,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.142311230627694,
              "weeks": 17,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 189.43,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 65.78855242429546,
              "weeks": 40,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 273,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 157.47,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.8716676344824,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 165.87,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.334349399885697,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 157.47,
          "confirmation": 165.87,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 58
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 9.364064641831837,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 114.26; Wave 2 121.35.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 139.27; Wave 3 189.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 139.27; Wave 4 165.87.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.72\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 229,
              "date": "2025-11-21",
              "price": 114.26,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.142311230627694,
              "weeks": 17,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 236,
              "date": "2026-01-09",
              "price": 139.27,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 21.88867495186417,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 241,
              "date": "2026-02-13",
              "price": 121.35,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.867092697637693,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 189.43,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 56.102183765966224,
              "weeks": 28,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 165.87,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.437311935807422,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 139.27,
          "confirmation": 189.43,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.554845249282285,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 122.87; Wave 2 132.28.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 142.82; Wave 3 189.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 142.82; Wave 4 165.87.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.86\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 247,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 122.87,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -9.059285027015031,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 251,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 142.82,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 16.236672906323747,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 258,
              "date": "2026-06-12",
              "price": 132.28,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.379918778882503,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 189.43,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 43.203810099788335,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 165.87,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.437311935807422,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 142.82,
          "confirmation": 189.43,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave4_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 91,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave4",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 229,
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "price": 114.26,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.142311230627694,
        "weeks": 17,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 236,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 139.27,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.88867495186417,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 241,
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "price": 121.35,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.867092697637693,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 189.43,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 56.102183765966224,
        "weeks": 28,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 165.87,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.437311935807422,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "4"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive.",
      "Relative Strength is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 10.4756616296261,
      "fair_value_gap": 20.743619969578177,
      "market_activity": 22.165219,
      "market_dynamics": -0.062991,
      "relative_strength": 3.700555,
      "roc30": 31.330166270783856,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 4 trough. Price is 10.5% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -2.53833950290851
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 11.606782398062172
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 28.62127791563275
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 40.34182248921229
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 193.452878,
      "low_52": 110.81,
      "position_52": 66.62401084337843,
      "drawdown": -14.25818953181973
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 36.60358821974846,
      "average_weekly_range": 7.602949219295709,
      "active_drawdown": -19.69110099738549
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 241,
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "price": 121.35,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.867092697637693,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 189.43,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 56.102183765966224,
        "weeks": 28,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 241,
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "price": 121.35,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.867092697637693,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 150.141667,
      "fair_value": 137.373718,
      "trend_gap": 10.4756616296261,
      "fair_value_gap": 20.743619969578177
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 189.43,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 56.102183765966224,
        "weeks": 28,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 165.87,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.437311935807422,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -12.437311935807422,
      "weeks": 6,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "10.5% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+3.7",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+22.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+31.3",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 31
    },
    "volume_ratio": 73.97900729108304,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 11,
          "positive_rate": 9.1,
          "median_return": -8.19,
          "bar_width": 40.949999999999996,
          "average_return": -7.6,
          "best_return": 0.23,
          "worst_return": -13.35
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 10,
          "positive_rate": 30.0,
          "median_return": -5.13,
          "bar_width": 25.65,
          "average_return": -6.86,
          "best_return": 3.13,
          "worst_return": -21.35
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 9,
          "positive_rate": 33.3,
          "median_return": -11.97,
          "bar_width": 59.85,
          "average_return": -5.79,
          "best_return": 13.09,
          "worst_return": -19.73
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 4 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 189.43, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 139.27; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 760,
          "positive_rate": 53.3,
          "median_return": 0.6,
          "average_return": 0.48,
          "median_excess_return": -0.72,
          "excess_observations": 760,
          "p10": -9.56,
          "p90": 10.04
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 281,
          "positive_rate": 57.3,
          "median_return": 2.58,
          "average_return": 2.85,
          "median_excess_return": -2.63,
          "excess_observations": 281,
          "p10": -17.74,
          "p90": 20.23
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 159,
          "positive_rate": 61.6,
          "median_return": 6.06,
          "average_return": 6.82,
          "median_excess_return": -4.74,
          "excess_observations": 159,
          "p10": -19.98,
          "p90": 33.86
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "QQQ",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-05",
      "earnings_weeks": 4,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bearish",
      "options_conviction": 23.11,
      "expected_move": 3.33232992,
      "invalidation_distance": 16.03665521191294,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 4 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bearish with 23/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 37,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 7,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 35,
          "explanation": "Price is 10.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 67% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 4 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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