{ "ticker": { "symbol": "LJAN", "name": "Innovator Premium Income 15 Buffer ETF - January", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 24.7357, "latest_open": 24.7, "latest_high": 24.76, "latest_low": 24.68, "bar_count": 136, "analysis_bar_count": 136, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 21.568203, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24.7357, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.685956915372136, "weeks": 135, "confirmed": false 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0.2566062077763251 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.4660851201762814 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.7038047068235067 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8525759169649141 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9106242857033409 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.9426958627379171 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.972865783881631 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.0275505883070215 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.064877104862008 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.0394846603858259 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.0110596549258355 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.990163657346742 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.8866227495372758 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8392359906860578 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8307900241389764 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8194815973075641 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8025767101794758 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.834755574358587 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8639084277067497 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_rising_stack", "title": "Hurst rising stack", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.5154741771189926, "fair_value_gap": 6.577849565884759, "market_activity": 50.408579, "market_dynamics": 0.385341, "relative_strength": -8.928311, "roc30": 2.4126766703237785, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst rising stack. Price is 1.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.4686087231904017 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.1422391321681318 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 2.266874300927411 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 4.570287676620921 } ], "range": { "high_52": 24.76, "low_52": 22.899878, "position_52": 98.69363407346398, "drawdown": -0.09814216478190714 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 2.7761849852207696, "average_weekly_range": 0.38172711671117465, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 24.366433, "fair_value": 23.209044, "trend_gap": 1.5154741771189926, "fair_value_gap": 6.577849565884759 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 21.568203, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 135, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 24.7357, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.685956915372136, "weeks": 135, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.685956915372136, "weeks": 135, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+50.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 67, "history_score": 52, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 136, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 86.51498120082174, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 58, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 82.5, "median_return": 0.32, "bar_width": 1.6, "average_return": 0.2, "best_return": 0.91, "worst_return": -3.21 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 48, "positive_rate": 91.7, "median_return": 1.15, "bar_width": 5.75, "average_return": 1.11, "best_return": 2.46, "worst_return": -1.21 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 40, "positive_rate": 97.5, "median_return": 2.18, "bar_width": 10.9, "average_return": 2.17, "best_return": 3.61, "worst_return": -0.24 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 95, "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", 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