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        "label": "10w",
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        "value": 0.11788606499352723
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "value": -0.05294717447745666
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "value": -0.2696560900313603
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": -0.466495251062209
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        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "value": -0.654779929706214
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": -0.8939894172147553
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      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": -1.1026173701592519
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      {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "value": -1.2551848019865384
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 91,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": null,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -10.428052524128296,
      "fair_value_gap": -6.8403812176478045,
      "market_activity": -31.710602,
      "market_dynamics": -0.797743,
      "relative_strength": -27.337214,
      "roc30": -12.929769995379017,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 10.4% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -7.03692478641646
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -19.793086302655677
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -12.32894229582148
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -16.80220597856939
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 77.11851,
      "low_52": 57.599998,
      "position_52": 6.762810607693866,
      "drawdown": -23.598111529903782
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.478583674612345,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.9680657977281253,
      "active_drawdown": -22.668036312214397
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 73.459999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.18979090624657,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 73.459999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.18979090624657,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 65.779521,
      "fair_value": 63.246285,
      "trend_gap": -10.428052524128296,
      "fair_value_gap": -6.8403812176478045
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 73.459999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.18979090624657,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 58.919998,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.793086302655677,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -19.793086302655677,
      "weeks": 13,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "10.4% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-27.3",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-31.7",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.8",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-12.9",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 17
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    "volume_ratio": 75.54076539101497,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 48,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 47,
          "positive_rate": 59.6,
          "median_return": 1.93,
          "bar_width": 9.65,
          "average_return": 2.3,
          "best_return": 18.62,
          "worst_return": -7.41
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 46,
          "positive_rate": 71.7,
          "median_return": 5.11,
          "bar_width": 25.55,
          "average_return": 4.52,
          "best_return": 20.36,
          "worst_return": -13.63
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 34,
          "positive_rate": 82.4,
          "median_return": 11.5,
          "bar_width": 57.5,
          "average_return": 9.48,
          "best_return": 25.98,
          "worst_return": -10.04
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 23,
      "constructive_count": 15,
      "constructive_percent": 65,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 17,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 507,
          "positive_rate": 56.6,
          "median_return": 0.92,
          "average_return": 0.79,
          "median_excess_return": -0.83,
          "excess_observations": 507,
          "p10": -6.69,
          "p90": 9.86
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 201,
          "positive_rate": 59.2,
          "median_return": 2.67,
          "average_return": 1.4,
          "median_excess_return": -3.07,
          "excess_observations": 201,
          "p10": -11.06,
          "p90": 14.62
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 120,
          "positive_rate": 59.2,
          "median_return": 1.96,
          "average_return": 0.68,
          "median_excess_return": -7.12,
          "excess_observations": 120,
          "p10": -19.21,
          "p90": 21.39
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^ATX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-12",
      "earnings_weeks": 6,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bearish",
      "options_conviction": 59.98,
      "expected_move": 5.49762182,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bearish with 60/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 29,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 10.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 7% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 6 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
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