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"2025-08-22", "value": -0.06017861538234113 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": -0.060093510022074303 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": -0.06005095732378921 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": -0.0600296809531983 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": -0.06001904274218022 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": -0.06001372360556105 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": -0.060011063999447646 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": -0.06000973415033297 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": -0.060009069169580646 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": -0.06000873661058727 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -0.06000857024726908 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -0.06000848696319071 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.06000844519599207 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.06000842415943337 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.06000841345421235 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.06000840787312355 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -0.06000840480333193 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -0.060008402927136564 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -0.06000840157189678 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -0.06000840038443772 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -1.4683396336819905 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -2.1323658364027684 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -2.471311414354196 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -2.6583292397855334 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -2.7691121561803693 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -2.838830859249645 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -2.884892891809004 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -2.9164783346475 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.938737681249286 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.954734258524891 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -2.9663883701729965 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -2.9749591749312003 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -2.9813030162363896 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -2.986018975158707 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -2.9895350530138782 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -2.9921616889675464 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -2.9941264624574666 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -2.3555974434184157 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -2.1433660470879405 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -2.0730807396568434 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -2.6899960642726843 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -2.8958922720894087 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -2.9647176390494603 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -2.9878043877916163 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.3956086837670791 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.864958313844028 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.6881360040780591 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -2.2292410934679556 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -2.7429771839929704 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.3142483428364955 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.8380247421801774 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.07; Wave B 4.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.27; C length 0.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 4.389, "confirmation": 4.118, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.07; Wave 2 4.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.34; Wave 3 4.39.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 81% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 4.118, "confirmation": 4.389, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.07; Wave B 4.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.27; C length 0.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 4.389, "confirmation": 4.118, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.07; Wave B 4.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.27; C length 0.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 4.389, "confirmation": 4.118, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.07; Wave B 4.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.27; C length 0.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.99\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 4.389, "confirmation": 4.118, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 63, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 4.067, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.72129368352507, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 4.34, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.712564543889837, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.0183549360124884, "fair_value_gap": -61.79594070771779, "market_activity": -52.348462, "market_dynamics": 0.741987, "relative_strength": -51.933899, "roc30": -2.162282657155585, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 2.0% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.465346534653471 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.597222222222221 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.6913809082483875 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -66.92290300700881 } ], "range": { "high_52": 13.269, "low_52": 4.059, "position_52": 3.5830618892508146, "drawdown": -66.92290300700881 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.985852366751107, "average_weekly_range": 1.3791390141540265, "active_drawdown": -78.67657775834427 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 250, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 4.607, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.564791034321733, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 250, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 4.607, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.564791034321733, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 4.302167, "fair_value": 11.488308, "trend_gap": 2.0183549360124884, "fair_value_gap": -61.79594070771779 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 4.118, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.115207373271879, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.389, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 6.580864497328798, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-51.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-52.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "mixed", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 16 }, "volume_ratio": 114.74415063465189, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 32, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 29.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": -0.45, "best_return": 5.16, "worst_return": -7.88 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 9.1, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": -0.72, "best_return": 2.34, "worst_return": -4.57 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 12, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 4.12, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 4.39; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 59, "positive_rate": 44.1, "median_return": -0.19, "average_return": -2.15, "median_excess_return": -0.24, "excess_observations": 59, "p10": -28.45, "p90": 9.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 47.1, "median_return": -1.11, "average_return": -6.61, "median_excess_return": -2.21, "excess_observations": 34, "p10": -41.71, "p90": 26.45 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 30.0, "median_return": -5.82, "average_return": -17.47, "median_excess_return": -9.55, "excess_observations": 30, "p10": -63.51, "p90": 19.08 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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