{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "EDEY",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "GER"
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  "latest_open": 12.134,
  "latest_high": 12.4945,
  "latest_low": 11.9815,
  "bar_count": 31,
  "analysis_bar_count": 31,
  "reversal_percent": 5.803609485153624,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "price": 11.645,
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      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 23,
      "date": "2026-06-19",
      "price": 12.499,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
      "weeks": 12,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 27,
      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "price": 11.762,
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      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 30,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 12.4945,
      "kind": "high",
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      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": false
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    "slope": -3.913717085328604,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 16,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
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    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 5,
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        "date": "2026-02-13",
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    "risk_score": 50,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
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        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 1.320015429014229
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.1681281335946794
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 1.055599955266195
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 1.3377873029485066
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 1.23740480260687
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 1.1798276419043354
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 1.067427270582681
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.6239770658587807
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.47046968031026043
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.32076050744042267
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.603941092206676
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 12.50; Wave 2 12.49.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 23,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 12.499,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
          "weeks": 12,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 27,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 11.762,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 30,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 12.4945,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 12.499,
      "confirmation": 11.762,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 33
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 10.52; Wave B 11.76.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 1.98; C length 0.73.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.37\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 11,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 10.5215,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -9.647917561185057,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 12.499,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 27,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 11.762,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 30,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 12.4945,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 12.4945,
        "confirmation": 11.762,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 12.50; Wave 2 12.49.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 12.499,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 27,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 11.762,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 30,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 12.4945,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 12.499,
        "confirmation": 11.762,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.285775176245798,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.803609485153624,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 12.50; Wave 2 12.49.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 12.499,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 27,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 11.762,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 30,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 12.4945,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 12.499,
          "confirmation": 11.762,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.062526639607537,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 12.50; Wave 2 12.49.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 12.499,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 27,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 11.762,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 30,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 12.4945,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 12.499,
          "confirmation": 11.762,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 8.6% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.1905243976513484
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 7.725136871147138
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 11.87768624641835
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 12.505,
      "low_52": 10.34,
      "position_52": 99.51501154734409,
      "drawdown": -0.08396641343462932
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 19.72792723690754,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.4850402565404472,
      "active_drawdown": -0.036002880230419795
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 27,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 11.762,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 23,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 12.499,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.794848643254298,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 27,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 11.762,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 11.504933,
      "fair_value": 11.481097,
      "trend_gap": 8.60124087641363,
      "fair_value_gap": 8.826708806658461
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 27,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 11.762,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.89647171773742,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 30,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 12.4945,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 6.227682366944397,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "8.6% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+35.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+16.1",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 34,
      "history_score": 12,
      "indicator_coverage": 37,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 31,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
    },
    "volume_ratio": 225.77363174078653,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 11.76, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 12.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 45,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 5,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 500,
          "positive_rate": 54.0,
          "median_return": 0.4,
          "average_return": 0.45,
          "median_excess_return": -0.27,
          "excess_observations": 500,
          "p10": -3.84,
          "p90": 4.89
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 175,
          "positive_rate": 60.6,
          "median_return": 1.84,
          "average_return": 1.54,
          "median_excess_return": 0.23,
          "excess_observations": 175,
          "p10": -6.45,
          "p90": 9.17
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 92,
          "positive_rate": 68.5,
          "median_return": 2.89,
          "average_return": 3.93,
          "median_excess_return": -0.91,
          "excess_observations": 92,
          "p10": -7.88,
          "p90": 15.96
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.03601584697266934,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 52,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 20,
          "explanation": "Price is 8.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 98,
          "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-07"
    ],
    "close": [
      10.766,
      10.937,
      10.6265,
      10.7175,
      11.168,
      11.694,
      11.479,
      11.645,
      10.96,
      10.847,
      10.534,
      10.5215,
      10.9475,
      11.143,
      11.3925,
      11.0415,
      11.239,
      11.5985,
      11.643,
      11.745,
      11.8315,
      11.89,
      11.9205,
      12.499,
      12.1995,
      12.3285,
      12.3475,
      11.762,
      12.0405,
      11.955,
      12.4945
    ],
    "trend": [
      null,
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      null,
      null,
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      null,
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      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      11.447317,
      11.504933
    ],
    "sma30": [
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      null,
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      null,
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      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      11.44731666666667,
      11.504933333333335
    ],
    "roc30": [
      null,
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      null,
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      null,
      null,
      null,
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      null,
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      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      null,
      16.055173694965635
    ],
    "drawdown": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      -2.8389869251165707,
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