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        "label": "10w",
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      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 23.81; Wave 2 24.41.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 23.81,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -5.702970297029707,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 28.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 17.597648047039065,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 24.41,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 23.81,
        "confirmation": 28.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.432250943506181,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 22.17; Wave 2 24.41.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 22.17,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -9.694501018329934,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 28.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 26.29679747406404,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 24.41,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 22.17,
          "confirmation": 28.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.895156839691364,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 22.17; Wave 2 24.41.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 22.17,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -9.694501018329934,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 28.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 26.29679747406404,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 24.41,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 22.17,
          "confirmation": 28.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.126609787783955,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 23.81; Wave 2 24.41.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 23.81,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.702970297029707,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 28.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 17.597648047039065,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 24.41,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 23.81,
          "confirmation": 28.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 85,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.17,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.694501018329934,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 28.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 26.29679747406404,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 24.41,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 1.4982868577764537,
      "fair_value_gap": -0.579611497216473,
      "market_activity": 24.831678,
      "market_dynamics": 0.192065,
      "relative_strength": -2.134714,
      "roc30": 4.182671788305593,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 1.5% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -7.0095238095238095
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.9089376053962956
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 12.02386415787059
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 20.84158415841585
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 28.41,
      "low_52": 19.78,
      "position_52": 53.65005793742757,
      "drawdown": -14.079549454417458
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 27.83053868083102,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.613111733502935,
      "active_drawdown": -58.05841924398626
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.17,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.694501018329934,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 28.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 26.29679747406404,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.17,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.694501018329934,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 24.049667,
      "fair_value": 24.552308,
      "trend_gap": 1.4982868577764537,
      "fair_value_gap": -0.579611497216473
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 28.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 26.29679747406404,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 24.41,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -12.821428571428571,
      "weeks": 6,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "1.5% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-2.1",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+24.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.2",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+4.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 31
    },
    "volume_ratio": 55.52108589134526,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 23,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 23,
          "positive_rate": 52.2,
          "median_return": 0.58,
          "bar_width": 2.9,
          "average_return": 0.07,
          "best_return": 17.6,
          "worst_return": -17.13
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 20,
          "positive_rate": 65.0,
          "median_return": 3.58,
          "bar_width": 17.9,
          "average_return": 2.31,
          "best_return": 19.76,
          "worst_return": -25.39
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 7,
          "positive_rate": 14.3,
          "median_return": -17.97,
          "bar_width": 89.85,
          "average_return": -12.79,
          "best_return": 24.06,
          "worst_return": -24.21
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 28.00, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 22.17; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 35,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 420,
          "positive_rate": 64.3,
          "median_return": 0.64,
          "average_return": 0.54,
          "median_excess_return": -0.53,
          "excess_observations": 420,
          "p10": -5.85,
          "p90": 6.63
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 142,
          "positive_rate": 69.0,
          "median_return": 1.94,
          "average_return": 3.05,
          "median_excess_return": -1.1,
          "excess_observations": 142,
          "p10": -11.56,
          "p90": 15.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 76,
          "positive_rate": 67.1,
          "median_return": 3.24,
          "average_return": 3.12,
          "median_excess_return": -2.83,
          "excess_observations": 76,
          "p10": -11.05,
          "p90": 20.13
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 56.54,
      "expected_move": 2.7528994,
      "invalidation_distance": 9.176566980745589,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 57/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 1.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 54% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2025-07-18",
      "2025-07-25",
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      "2025-08-08",
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      "2025-08-22",
      "2025-08-29",
      "2025-09-05",
      "2025-09-12",
      "2025-09-19",
      "2025-09-26",
      "2025-10-03",
      "2025-10-10",
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      "2025-10-24",
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      "2026-04-03",
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      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
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