{ "ticker": { "symbol": "233A", "name": "iFreeETF India Nifty50", "exchange": "JPX" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 1874.0, "latest_open": 1896.0, "latest_high": 1911.0, "latest_low": 1864.0, "bar_count": 101, "analysis_bar_count": 101, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 1936.971802, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 32, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 1799.682617, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.0878256905053325, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 47, 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"value": -0.06817788721221976 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": 0.5890745354328586 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": 0.41478967326697297 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": 0.8443763967972652 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": 0.9149538225837256 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": -0.023877911628337235 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": -0.019644287345254915 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": -0.3020491613178111 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": -0.29135343433012545 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 0.13085089038626974 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 0.3938796989351124 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 0.6545628960678135 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 0.9724703510598107 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 0.9218000071969736 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 0.8734158579528734 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 0.4895218623591996 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 0.28023422305720475 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 0.43280506992659523 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 0.22097778826991035 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 0.3019560078335494 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.4372846499171649 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 0.6680910056262062 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 0.7068244020989921 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.5113256499651422 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.1241718284676627 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.6662113584032767 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 2.0588483776183892 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 2.2745104780376573 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 2.114902853379232 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 2.0884952905417338 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 2.2367636710855447 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 2.236808542947064 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 2.0397277271280503 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.866688674644321 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.7422234202213995 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.735820123126204 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.6492009860939947 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.6037383082177308 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.5868122882383124 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.3247633353446244 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.7306008599989017 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.7503928588875665 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.47202846862438025 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.36982191103913103 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.4389594379467837 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.13888510077212884 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.39107141414364144 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.8947090225732326 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.4165929555207006 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.8207330125872652 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.8741179261678669 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.6620672563272776 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.539418793774498 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.5869007501033014 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.5906397625027642 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.728965702880349 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -1.8175980574206874 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -1.8010674941876434 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.7684900584894814 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.6688855551861175 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.327211340833152 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.04326209621594 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.8181167745738658 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.7287895377518324 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6913353203066251 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.742142734511331 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1819.00; Wave 2 1874.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1819.0, "confirmation": 1916.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1937.00; Wave B 1916.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 118.00; C length 42.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.36\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 1937.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.910863509749303, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 1874.0, "confirmation": 1916.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1819.00; Wave 2 1874.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1905.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.727872457394173, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.627296587926509, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1819.0, "confirmation": 1905.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1819.00; Wave 2 1874.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1819.0, "confirmation": 1916.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1819.00; Wave 2 1874.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1905.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.727872457394173, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.627296587926509, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1819.0, "confirmation": 1905.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 75, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -2.7152635093930173, "fair_value_gap": -4.921412054930456, "market_activity": -27.80764, "market_dynamics": 0.530604, "relative_strength": -22.15235, "roc30": -11.638523819410759, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 2.7% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.8334206390780514 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.4721345951629863 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -8.043420199171036 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -4.7673318188818525 } ], "range": { "high_52": 2245.705966, "low_52": 1763.0, "position_52": 22.995365257200902, "drawdown": -16.551853698909394 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.129890488961614, "average_weekly_range": 2.1100271412533753, "active_drawdown": -13.352691109666287 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 1819.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.091894682498709, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 1926.304236, "fair_value": 1971.001085, "trend_gap": -2.7152635093930173, "fair_value_gap": -4.921412054930456 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 97, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1916.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.332600329851567, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1874.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -2.1920668058455113, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "2.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-22.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-27.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 78, "history_score": 39, "indicator_coverage": 99, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 101, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 61.25053386099122, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 6, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 20.0, "median_return": -0.59, "bar_width": 2.9499999999999997, "average_return": -0.65, "best_return": 3.43, "worst_return": -4.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 1916.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1819.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 461, "positive_rate": 61.2, "median_return": 1.42, "average_return": 56.53, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 461, "p10": -9.3, "p90": 8.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 58.9, "median_return": 2.57, "average_return": 152.1, "median_excess_return": 0.18, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 13.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 115, "positive_rate": 69.6, "median_return": 7.02, "average_return": 200.03, "median_excess_return": 0.89, "excess_observations": 115, "p10": -21.76, "p90": 26.39 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.934898612593383, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 7, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 23% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", 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