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      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 65.78; Wave 2 73.57.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 254,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 65.778216,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 86.338162,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 73.57,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 65.778216,
        "confirmation": 86.338162,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 14.559550835021088,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 65.78; Wave 2 73.57.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 65.778216,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 86.338162,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 73.57,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 65.778216,
          "confirmation": 86.338162,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 9.09971927188818,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 65.78; Wave 2 73.57.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 65.778216,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 86.338162,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 73.57,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 65.778216,
          "confirmation": 86.338162,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.3698034903217255,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 65.78; Wave 2 73.57.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 65.778216,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 86.338162,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 73.57,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 65.778216,
          "confirmation": 86.338162,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 52,
      "changes": 3,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 53,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 65.778216,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 86.338162,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 73.57,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -3.0490768814626685,
      "fair_value_gap": -26.782807293463435,
      "market_activity": -5.971581,
      "market_dynamics": -0.295552,
      "relative_strength": -12.086405,
      "roc30": 5.438387937194886,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 3.0% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -2.4787910922587546
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -3.273731264790966
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -7.93704550720519
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 2.6343963031416737
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 91.425104,
      "low_52": 64.565001,
      "position_52": 33.52555647310807,
      "drawdown": -19.529760666173274
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 35.77392066813147,
      "average_weekly_range": 7.376204866932326,
      "active_drawdown": -49.28411638430149
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 65.778216,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 86.338162,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 65.778216,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.580510542604866,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 75.883754,
      "fair_value": 100.481864,
      "trend_gap": -3.0490768814626685,
      "fair_value_gap": -26.782807293463435
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 86.338162,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.256466426514205,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 73.57,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -14.788549702969128,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "3.0% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-12.1",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-6.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.3",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+5.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 27
    },
    "volume_ratio": 72.22927772823074,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 61,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 61,
          "positive_rate": 57.4,
          "median_return": 3.71,
          "bar_width": 18.55,
          "average_return": 2.54,
          "best_return": 25.0,
          "worst_return": -18.15
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 61,
          "positive_rate": 63.9,
          "median_return": 11.79,
          "bar_width": 58.949999999999996,
          "average_return": 7.86,
          "best_return": 58.09,
          "worst_return": -27.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 54,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.28,
          "bar_width": 1.4000000000000001,
          "average_return": 2.97,
          "best_return": 71.75,
          "worst_return": -34.15
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 86.34, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 65.78; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 12,
      "constructive_percent": 50,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 225,
          "positive_rate": 55.6,
          "median_return": 1.88,
          "average_return": 2.66,
          "median_excess_return": -0.04,
          "excess_observations": 225,
          "p10": -8.97,
          "p90": 16.78
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 123,
          "positive_rate": 61.0,
          "median_return": 3.39,
          "average_return": 6.57,
          "median_excess_return": -0.83,
          "excess_observations": 123,
          "p10": -11.32,
          "p90": 30.13
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 96,
          "positive_rate": 65.6,
          "median_return": 6.57,
          "average_return": 10.45,
          "median_excess_return": -0.32,
          "excess_observations": 96,
          "p10": -15.44,
          "p90": 37.88
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-02",
      "earnings_weeks": 4,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 53.39,
      "expected_move": 7.83942546,
      "invalidation_distance": 10.590980019029487,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 4 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 53/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 36,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 34% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 48,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 4 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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