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0.2421259540435348 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.2582350889694918 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.43258700012054985 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.6935284150929305 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8746489286500132 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0021554620333093 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.1166810556432254 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1835263092812451 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2402698498061755 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2899804376458273 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2508364799325828 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1991711701689216 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1611767463513987 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0772400394392612 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.048711618393841 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0570573652115365 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0301129298392442 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9890421638161537 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9987174517652718 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.0556263951018927 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.38; Wave B 34.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.70; C length 3.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.56\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 36.08, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.758434547908227, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.769401330376939, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.91, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.187788018433173, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 37.91, "confirmation": 34.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.38; Wave 2 34.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 36.08; Wave 3 37.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.56\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 36.08, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.758434547908227, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.769401330376939, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.91, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.187788018433173, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 34.72, "confirmation": 37.91, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 32 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.38; Wave B 34.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.70; C length 3.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.56\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 36.08, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.758434547908227, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.769401330376939, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.91, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.187788018433173, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 37.91, "confirmation": 34.72, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 57, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 36.08, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.758434547908227, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.72, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.769401330376939, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 128, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.91, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.187788018433173, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.7102697815712875, "fair_value_gap": 12.75642829870478, "market_activity": 54.830968, "market_dynamics": 0.582784, "relative_strength": -6.015653, "roc30": 5.834729201563362, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 3.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.9856153436334508 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.4317751958929983 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.388402549782185 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 10.267276709491822 } ], "range": { "high_52": 37.91, "low_52": 34.36, "position_52": 100.0, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 5.4480688320415425, "average_weekly_range": 0.494458486562836, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 36.553757, "fair_value": 33.621143, "trend_gap": 3.7102697815712875, "fair_value_gap": 12.75642829870478 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 30.381, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.458517322180422, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 128, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.91, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.781936078470086, "weeks": 70, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 24.781936078470086, "weeks": 70, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-6.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+54.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 69, "history_score": 50, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 129, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 205.1736772343959, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 55, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 85.2, "median_return": 0.72, "bar_width": 3.5999999999999996, "average_return": 0.67, "best_return": 3.92, "worst_return": -3.41 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 91.1, "median_return": 2.39, "bar_width": 11.950000000000001, "average_return": 2.39, "best_return": 5.57, "worst_return": -2.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 97.2, "median_return": 4.66, "bar_width": 23.3, "average_return": 4.47, "best_return": 6.84, "worst_return": -0.54 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 34.72, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 37.91; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 40, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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