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"value": 0.44982002520794306 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 0.7004480806791593 }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "value": 1.0061155441055167 }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "value": 1.1073922912850414 }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "value": 1.1429577074911217 }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "value": 1.3057438739689675 }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "value": 1.2583894657413657 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "value": 1.1322710487801677 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "value": 1.1520097537837675 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.03; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.659574468085104, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.03, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.0302; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 0.0302, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.243243243243256, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.675496688741724, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.0302, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.03; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.99999999999999, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.03, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.0302; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 0.0302, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 63.243243243243256, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.675496688741724, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.0302, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.03; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.659574468085104, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.03, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.03; Wave 2 0.028.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.99999999999999, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 0.03, "confirmation": 0.0155, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 37, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.659574468085104, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 10.462363894587352, "fair_value_gap": 230.50047214353162, "market_activity": 22.818772, "market_dynamics": 0.540164, "relative_strength": 46.781916, "roc30": 19.148936170212767, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 10.5% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 7.6923076923077 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 24.444444444444454 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.81818181818182 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 833.3333333333334 } ], "range": { "high_52": 0.04, "low_52": 0.002, "position_52": 68.42105263157895, "drawdown": -30.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 83.5507132621192, "average_weekly_range": 12.255572065602356, "active_drawdown": -78.6910197869102 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.659574468085104, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 254, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 0.03, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.659574468085104, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 0.025348, "fair_value": 0.008472, "trend_gap": 10.462363894587352, "fair_value_gap": 230.50047214353162 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 0.0155, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -48.333333333333336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-10-02", "price": 0.028, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 80.64516129032258, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "10.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+46.8", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+22.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+19.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 0, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 54 }, "volume_ratio": 199.85102181183206, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 52, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 51, "positive_rate": 56.9, "median_return": 5.06, "bar_width": 25.299999999999997, "average_return": 21.49, "best_return": 244.83, "worst_return": -33.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 50, "positive_rate": 46.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 85.67, "best_return": 566.67, "worst_return": -47.67 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -10.0, "bar_width": 50.0, "average_return": 99.54, "best_return": 700.0, "worst_return": -93.7 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close below 0.0155, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 0.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 12, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 691, "positive_rate": 51.4, "median_return": 0.72, "average_return": 1.66, "median_excess_return": 0.18, "excess_observations": 691, "p10": -10.43, "p90": 14.64 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 248, "positive_rate": 52.8, "median_return": 3.27, "average_return": 5.84, "median_excess_return": 0.7, "excess_observations": 248, "p10": -18.01, "p90": 33.28 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 141, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 2.19, "average_return": 11.3, "median_excess_return": 0.72, "excess_observations": 141, "p10": -21.36, "p90": 57.55 } ], "benchmark": "^FTSE", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 7.142857142857137, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 17, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 7, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 35, "explanation": "Price is 10.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 68% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", 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